tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36280177697412632102024-02-19T06:15:47.155-05:00The Octopi GardenAdamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.comBlogger174125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-33248128337045960242013-02-22T11:24:00.002-05:002013-02-22T11:24:28.731-05:00Franzen: Detroit's MVP?Every team needs a scapegoat. When a team plays sloppy or lackadaisical explanations are warranted, and those explanations frequently come in the form of accusations from the fanbase that so-and-so was mailing it in and didn't come to play. Sometimes those accusations are lobbied against a scapemule, not a scapegoat. <div>
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Johan Franzen has been Detroit's resident if-only-he-could-tap-into-that-talent-and-stop-being-lazy (feel free to use that label in your own writing) forward for the past eight seasons. But is he really as lazy as people accuse him of being? Does he deserve the ire that he typically draws from the fanbase? In a word, no.</div>
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I tried to dig a little deeper into this subject last season and it seems like now is the right time to re-post what I found. My post delves into the mumbo-jumbo voodoo of advanced statistics that some people loathe and others love, so if you think stats are for dorks you might not want to read on. One thing worth noting; I didn't see a reason to update the post for this season because there simply isn't enough data to draw conclusions yet. </div>
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<b>Lazy Mule or Workhorse: Inside Franzen's Numbers</b></div>
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<a href="http://theoctopigarden.blogspot.com/2012/03/lazy-mule-or-workhorse-inside-franzens.html">http://theoctopigarden.blogspot.com/2012/03/lazy-mule-or-workhorse-inside-franzens.html</a></div>
Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-71594108575521988252013-01-15T22:53:00.000-05:002013-01-15T22:53:06.508-05:00Damien Brunner, Red vs. White, and Shameless Self-PromotionTonight's Red vs. White game provided a much-needed dose of hockey-like activities to a famished Hockeytown. Other sites have gone into depth about what happened, and though I'd love to screen cap all of the goals and do a GBGA I can't because, quite frankly, my Masters program and other hockey writing obligations are killing me at the moment. Instead, I'll direct your attention to some things I think are worth taking a look at.<br />
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<b>Excellent Options for Filling Your Free Time</b><br />
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First, in the "OMG PANIC oh wait the headline is scarier than the story" category we have <a href="http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130115/SPORTS0103/301150395/">this</a> article from the Detroit News' Ted Kulfan about Pavel Datsyuk's desire to play in Russia.<br />
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George has everything you could ever want about both the announcement of Zetterberg as captain (congrats, Z) and the scrimmage over at his <a href="http://kuklaskorner.com/tmr">blog</a>. Go there now because he is awesome and whatnot.<br />
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The Detroit News has a great <a href="http://apps.detroitnews.com/apps/multimedia/gallery.php?id=15432">photo gallery</a> that recaps the Zetterberg press conference and scrimmage.<br />
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<b>The Part of the Post Where I Shamelessly (Shamefully?) Self Promote</b><br />
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Damien Brunner looked great in tonight's game, further cementing the feeling that I had when he signed that Detroit had found yet another diamond in the rough. Technically I guess he was more of a free agent in Europe, but you get the idea. In all seriousness he looks like the perfect complement to Dats and Z. I can't wait to see the Euro Triplets rolled out in game action.<br />
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I wrote a post about Brunner when he signed that's turned out to be one of my most popular and now seems like as good a time as any to link to it again. Check it out <a href="http://theoctopigarden.blogspot.com/2012/07/welcome-to-detroit-damien-brunner.html">here</a>.<br />
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My most recent piece for Hockey's Future is a mid-season update on all prospects in the AHL and ECHL. You can give it a read <a href="http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/83613/detroit-red-wings-minor-league-system-ready-to-graduate-prospect-to-the-big-club/">here</a>, and I very much appreciate if you do. My article for this month will be about how prospects from the 2008 draft have fared, and the article for February will be an updated Top 20 prospects list.<br />
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I had an idea for a megapost about how points and ice time correlate between the AHL and NHL, but the AHL doesn't keep ice time stats. Boooooo AHL stats. Anyways, I'll be writing/doing my beloved GBGAs as frequently as time allows. Thanks for sticking with me.<br />
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<br />Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-55776980132968025342013-01-06T20:57:00.003-05:002013-01-06T20:57:25.184-05:00It's Back, and So Am IYou know the old saying "the more things change, the more they stay the same"? Yeah, that's not really true. Between the last time the Detroit Red Wings took the ice in an official NHL game and now I got married, got a puppy, got a job where someone actually pays me to write (about hockey!), and started down a new career path. It's been a good few months.<br />
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At the same time, it hasn't been a good few months for the NHL and those associated with it. As you can tell from my post dates, I decided that I wouldn't write on this blog again until after the lockout. I consider myself about as fervent a fan as there is, and I'll admit that I felt the most apathetic towards the league that I've ever felt. Was my groom's cake a winged wheel? Yep. Did my wife get me cuff links made from game used pucks? Yep. Did I get a bunch of Wings books for Christmas? Yep. Did I feel strange, like the passion I had for this franchise had slipped away, lost among a never-ending barrage of on-the-table off-the-table proposals and marathon bargaining session? Yep.</div>
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Consider that apathy cancelled. I'm excited again about Detroit Red Wings hockey, excited to see my favorite players compete at the highest level against the best players in the world. Hockey never really left, but today it sure feels like hockey's back.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/littlepasha_zps4025ba13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/littlepasha_zps4025ba13.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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Remember that puppy I mentioned earlier? This is Pasha. Yep, he's named after <i>that</i> Pasha. He's a Border Collie/German Shepherd mix and I swear I'm gonna teach him how to dangle dangle. I think he's already half way there, because when we're playing with his tennis ball and he's cornered he throws the ball through my legs, runs around me, and grabs it from behind me.</div>
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These are the cuff links that my wife got me as a wedding gift. For a game used equipment junkie like myself these are pretty awesome.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/groomscake_zps08e11f09.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/groomscake_zps08e11f09.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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And this awesome awesomeness was my groom's cake. Red Wings logo outside, carrot cake inside. </div>
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As a side note, you can check out my work at Hockey's Future <a href="http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/80833/detroit-red-wings-prospect-system-well-stocked-at-forward-and-on-defense/">here</a> (a new article of mine should be up in the next day or two) and my work at Hockeyprospect.com <a href="http://hockeyprospect.com/drafted-prospects/jacob-trouba-winnipeg-jets-prospect">here</a></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: initial;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">@TOGBlog1</span></a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i></div>
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Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-43595123285396763542012-08-27T20:10:00.001-04:002012-08-27T20:10:05.259-04:00Exclusive interview with Red Wings Equipment Manager Paul Boyer<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Boyer, left, with former captain Nick Lidstrom <i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Photo credit Dave Reginek)</span></i></div>
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Back in May, I alluded to something cool that may be happening on this very site in the near future in my <a href="http://theoctopigarden.blogspot.com/2012/05/well-equipped-saturday-at-hockeytown.html">post</a> about the Wings' equipment sale. Today, I'm thrilled to be able to post the end result.</div>
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Red Wings equipment manager Paul Boyer is well known by diehard Detroit followers, having spent almost two decades behind the bench. He graciously agreed to do an exclusive interview for The Octopi Garden during the equipment sale at Hockeytown Authentics. We spoke at length, and I would like to thank Mr. Boyer again for making this happen. Enjoy.</div>
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<b>Walk us through what
a typical home gameday is like for you and your staff.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Depends on what happens the night before. If it’s a practice
day and I got the skates sharpened, I won’t have to be in til 8 or 8:30 AM. If I
don’t, I get in there about 6 AM and start sharpening for morning skate. Then I
wait for players to get in and start handling the needs of the players when
they get in. Normally the salesmen that come in like the Bauer rep, the Warrior
rep, the Easton rep I deal with them and react to whatever they need. If
there’s any big emergencies I’ll stick around and do it, if not I sneak out for
a quick bite to eat, pick up my kids from school and I’m back around 4 PM.</div>
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That’s the best time to meet, the afternoon before a game.
With players, the reps, as equipment manager I’m in charge of handling what the
reps need. </div>
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I’ve always said there’s three days in hockey; gameday,
practice day, and a day off. Your routine depends on what kind of day it is.</div>
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<b>Could you discuss the
challenge that back-to-back games pose for an equipment manager?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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It’s just two games, depends on whether it’s two home games
back-to-back, which is pretty rare. It depends on how many games you go for.
It’s a routine, like waking up in the morning. You just know that after the
game you have to line up the sticks…the players know the routine. They know the
routine. We’re in constant communication with them. We’ll tell them it’s this
many games, you need this many sticks. My staff will pull the duffel bags, and
the guys come in and drop their stuff right in the bags. Then we load them onto
the truck and it’s off to the airport.</div>
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<b>Who is the most
superstitious about their equipment, and in what way?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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I do not speak about players and their superstitions (laughs). You
can quote me on that.</div>
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<b>What challenges does
an outdoor game like the Winter Classic pose to you and your staff?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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We were lucky at Wrigley Field because the weather cooperated.
The weather’s been the biggest hurdle. If you get a rainy day like they had in
Pittsburgh that year that hurts<i>. </i>I heard
a league official say that shouldn’t have even been played<i>.</i> It’s dangerous
for the guys. We were lucky it was cold and overcast [in 2009], and that’s what
you’re looking for. You just keep talking to your weatherman and hope it will
line up that way. The league has done it so many times they’re very organized
and easy to work with. I remember a lot of stuff from our last game. Just keeping
the guys warm, and Reebok does a good job of that. You make sure you have some
eye black, grab some handwarmers, and we know we can use tinted visors now.</div>
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<b>A great deal of
debate about equipment has taken place in light of the NHL’s commitment to reducing
head injuries. What, if any, changes do
you feel need to be made to enhance player safety?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Not many. The stuff we’re using is very protective. Bauer,
Warrior, Easton, all the companies have great helmets. The manufacturers are
all up to date on the technology. The equipment provided to us and approved for
use by the NHL is good, quality equipment. As equipment managers we’re looking
for anything we can to keep players safe. Mouth guards have really come a long
way. Under Armour’s bite guard technology has helped, with that bite lock
technology so players can breathe easier,
that with a good helmet is great. Everyone is better educated, and we
know better how to keep our players safe. The players know too. </div>
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<b>Being on the bench,
you have a vantage point that few share. Any interesting Scotty Bowman or Mike
Babcock stories you can tell us?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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None. I’ll let Dave Lewis tell those. Lewie’s a better story
teller than me. Working with Scotty Bowman, Mike Babcock, Jacques Lemaire;
you really see the passion these guys have, they love coming to work every day.
That’s what makes the difference</div>
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<b>What do you see as
the single greatest advancement in equipment since you started working in
hockey?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The composite stick. It has to be the composite stick. It
allows players to pass faster, harder. It’s brought everything to a new level.
Off-ice it’s guys being educated. The players are bigger, stronger, faster.
That’s a change nobody really sees. You can’t wrap your hands around a workout.
You most certainly can see what it’s doing to the guys. They’re bigger,
stronger, faster, and they move easier. I see guys working with skating coaches
here in Detroit. You can see they want to get better.</div>
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<b>You’ve been on the
bench for some the greatest moments in Red Wings history, including four
Stanley Cup championships. What is your favorite memory from the past 16
seasons?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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That '97 championship was great. It was the first one for
everyone involved, from Mr. Illitch to Steve Yzerman to me. Growing up in Canada
you see guys like Guy Lafleur holding the cup, and then once you get in the
game you want to win the Cup. Like Ken Holland says, once you win it you don’t
want to let it go. That’s what keeps you going. </div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">@TOGBlog1</span></a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
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Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-13361866858131687452012-07-28T17:20:00.001-04:002012-07-28T18:20:56.919-04:00Waiting for Good D: Evaluating number one defensemen and the likelihood they join Detroit<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>Wanted: someone to fill those skates</i><br />
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It's no secret that the Red Wings are in the market for another defenseman. Detroit is weak on the back end for the first time in years after losing Nicklas Lidstrom, Brad Stuart, and Brian Rafalski over the span of two seasons. Ryan Suter signed with Minnesota, Shea Weber's offer sheet was matched, and just like that the available top tier d-men were locked up and Ken Holland was left looking at his roster and thinking about how Jakub Kindl isn't really <i>that</i> bad.<br />
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The free agent market is tapped out. There aren't any players left of the caliber that Detroit needs, but that doesn't mean all options have been exhausted. This article looks at every team's best defenseman and the likelihood that Detroit could acquire them via trade or offer sheet before or during the 2012-13 season.<br />
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<b>Anaheim Ducks</b><br />
Cam Fowler- Much like Detroit, Anaheim doesn't have a clear-cut number one defenseman. If Fowler isn't already their best blueliner he probably will be by the end of next season. He's young, talented, and about to become a RFA at the end of the season.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Tremendously unlikely<br />
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<b>Boston Bruins</b><br />
Zdeno Chara- A perennial Norris nominee and lynchpin of the Boston rotation. Has six years left on his deal.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Slim to none<br />
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<b>Buffalo Sabres</b><br />
Christian Ehrhoff- Had a somewhat disappointing first season in Buffalo, but with a NMC and a modified NTC I don't see him going anywhere. Oh, and he's also signed through 2020-21. If Buffalo does tank you may see Robyn Regehr traded, though he won't do anything to help Detroit's lack of offense from the defense position.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>Calgary Flames</b><br />
Jay Bouwmeester- Rumor has it that he's on the block, but I don't see him as a number one guy. His salary is high ($6.68 million) relative to his production (5 goals and 24 assists for 29 points), and he isn't a shutdown d-man.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: He's probably available for the right price, but I think that price will be too high<br />
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<b>Carolina Hurricanes</b><br />
Jamie McBain- Honestly, the Hurricanes don't really have a guy worth pursuing. McBain is young and talented, but he's not the top flight defenseman the Wings need.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None, as there isn't a spot for another second pairing defenseman on the roster<br />
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<b>Chicago Blackhawks</b><br />
Duncan Keith- Another Norris caliber player who's inked to a long term deal (through 2022-23). There's no reason to dump his salary at this point, and Chicago isn't in a rebuilding phase.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None. There's almost no reason he'll be shopped, and if this offseason has taught us anything it's that players don't move intradivisionally<br />
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<b>Colorado Avalanche</b><br />
Erik Johnson- A former number one overall pick with a wealth of talent, he just signed a new four year deal. Colorado doesn't need to move salary and definitely doesn't want to acquire it, so he's likely going nowhere.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire: </i>Slim to none<br />
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<b>Columbus Blue Jackets</b><br />
Jack Johnson- Columbus just picked him up in the Jeff Carter deal, so he's probably stuck there for a while. He'd be a good addition to Detroit's roster and I think he'd make a good partner for Niklas Kronwall.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: If Howson wouldn't trade Nash to Detroit then there's no way he trades them Johnson<br />
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<b>Dallas Stars</b><br />
Alex Goligoski- A point producer with a limited NTC. They're clearly going all-in this year after adding Jaromir Jagr, Ray Whitney, and Derek Roy, and they need talented defenders to compliment their offense.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Highly unlikely<br />
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<b>Edmonton Oilers</b><br />
Ryan Whitney- They're already thin on D, so no one's going anywhere in Edmonton.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>Florida Panthers</b><br />
Brian Campbell- A quality player, but another who isn't likely to change locations. The only consolation here is that, per <a href="http://capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=16">capgeek.com</a>, he can name eight teams he would accept a trade to. If Florida tanks and decides they'd be better served with a smattering of forwards, picks, and prospects then you know Ken Holland will be the first to inquire.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Unlikely<br />
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<b>Los Angeles Kings</b><br />
Drew Doughty- The best defenseman on the defending Stanley Cup champions, who just happens to have signed a long-term deal one season ago? Yeah, he can feel pretty comfy buying that beach house now.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>Minnesota Wild</b><br />
Ryan Suter- Hey, didn't Detroit try to...oh, right. Nevermind.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Hahaha<br />
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<b>Montreal Canadiens</b><br />
P.K. Subban or Andrei Markov circa 2009- Markov has a modified NTC and has been plagued by injuries. Subban could be a great addition and is a restricted free agent. It's not the Red Wings way, but some real pressure could be exerted on Montreal if Subban was signed to an offer sheet. They only have $6.3 million in cap space. Nothing can be taken for granted and no assumptions can be made in an offseason like this one.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Slight possibility<br />
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<b>Nashville Predators</b><br />
Shea Weber- Word on the street is that this guy is good at the whole hockey thing. Also, head slams.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Holland talked to his agents and nothing developed. Then Nashville matched Philly's offer. Thus ends all "maybe he'll slam Zetterberg's head into the glass again...in practice next season lol" discussions.<br />
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<b>New Jersey Devils</b><br />
Anton Volchenkov or Adam Larsson- Volchenkov isn't a true number one, and Larsson is too young and skilled to be moved outside of a blockbuster.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Slim to none<br />
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<b>New York Islanders</b><br />
Mark Streit- An underrated number one, he'd be a great acquisition for the Winged Wheelers. His contract is up after this season, so it's possible that the Islanders may want to move him if they don't think they can get a deal done. This may be the long term target for Ken Holland, the player that could significantly upgrade Detroit's roster close to the trade deadline.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Very possible, depending on what is asked for in return and contract status<br />
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<b>New York Rangers</b><br />
Dan Girardi- He may not score as often as others on this list, but he might be the most consistent in his point production. A reliable 30-point player, Girardi anchors the bluline for a team that's making a push for the Cup. He's also signed for two more seasons.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>Ottawa Senators</b><br />
Erik Karlsson- The best young defenseman in the league. Any team would like to add him, and none will do so. Ottawa locked him up long-term and if there's anyone who's truly untouchable it's this guy.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>Philadelphia Flyers</b><br />
Kimmo Timonen- It's very possible that Timonen becomes available closer to the trade deadline, with an expiring contract and a GM who's not afraid to make a bold move.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: A distinct possibility<br />
<br />
<b>Phoenix Coyotes</b><br />
Keith Yandle- If Doan leaves, do they decide to move Yandle as well? Rumor has it that he may be available, and Detroit has to add someone of this caliber if they want to begin to patch the damage left by Nick Lidstrom's departure. Yandle is a point producer with four years left on his contract; there's nothing to not like here.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Very possible<br />
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<b>Pittsburgh Penguins</b><br />
Kris Letang- His $3.5 million deal is a huge bargain for a team that's thin on defense. Too good a deal and too big a part of their team to move now.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>Saint Louis Blues</b><br />
Alex Pietrangelo- He's a bonafide NHLer, he's young, he's on an entry level deal, and he plays for a division rival.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>San Jose Sharks</b><br />
Dan Boyle- He's aging and has two years left on his contract, but he's still the best defender on a team that has a shot at the Cup. It's not impossible for him to be moved, but I don't see why he would be.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Slim to none<br />
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<b>Tampa Bay Lightning</b><br />
Matt Carle- He was one of Detroit's offseason targets and chose to join Steve Yzerman's squad instead. Yeah, he's not going anywhere.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: None<br />
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<b>Toronto Maple Leafs</b><br />
Dion Phaneuf- Rebounded with a good offensive season in 2011-12. He's the captain and face of Toronto's franchise, and though his once high salary is now within reason for a good defenseman, he's not likely to be moved. If Toronto didn't implode at the end of the season they had a shot at the playoffs, but if they repeat this again all bets are off.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Unlikely<br />
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<b>Vancouver Canucks</b><br />
Kevin Bieksa- Not impossible to acquire, but not as likely to be moved as teammate Alex Edler (if a new deal can't be reached).<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Unlikely<br />
<br />
<b>Washington Capitals</b><br />
Mike Green- He just re-upped with the Caps, so it's very doubtful that he gets moved this season.<br />
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<i>Chances Wings acquire</i>: Slim to none<br />
<br />
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<b>So who could Detroit add?</b></div>
<br />
The most likely candidates to become Red Wings are Subban (via offer sheet), Bouwmeester, Streit, Timonen, and Yandle. I think Bouwmeester is the most overrated and overpaid of those on the list, and I don't think he's the true first pair defenseman Detroit needs.<br />
<br />
Narrowing the list down further, there seems to be only one player listed above that could be moved before the season starts and that's Yandle. The others could be available depending on circumstance, and were included as being trade targets mostly because of their expiring contracts. Teams and agents will have the largest bearing on their future, so it's hard for a fanbase to tolerate but possible that the Wings will hold out for a player like Mark Streit at the trade deadline.<br />
<br />
Perhaps the most intriguing possibility is signing Subban to an offer sheet. The Canadiens have just $6.3 million left in cap space, so an offer of $7 million per season couldn't be matched. That's not an outrageous salary for a semi-proven offensive defenseman like Subban. Sure, it's out of the ordinary for Holland and co. but any move should be considered at this point.<br />
<br />
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-51114957502910717722012-07-22T23:06:00.002-04:002012-07-22T23:06:10.525-04:00Welcome (Back) to Detroit: Mikael Samuelsson<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/samuelsson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/samuelsson.jpg" /></a></div>
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<i>Just...I don't know, do that again</i></div>
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<i><br /></i></div>
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First of all, I apologize for this being ludicrously late. I know that <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffHancock41">Jeff Hancock</a> from <a href="http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/">Winging it in Motown</a> was waiting on pins and needles for this, so I had to get around to writing this sooner or later. Obviously, it was later.</div>
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<b>Numbers? Numbers!</b></div>
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<ul>
<li style="text-align: left;">In 2008-09, his last season in Detroit, Samuelsson had 19 goals and 21 assists for 40 points. He departed for Vancouver during the 2009 offseason and saw his offensive numbers balloon to 30 goals and 23 assists for 53 points. Last season he split time between Vancouver and Florida, and netted 14 goals and 17 assists for 31 points</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">Looking at things through a wider lens, Samuelsson has a five-year even-strength HARO+ of 0.895, a HARD+ of 1.107, and a HART+ of 1.001</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">Samuelsson has a five-year power play HARO+ of 1.343, and a five-year penalty kill HARD+ of zero, because he hasn't been used on the penalty kill. Ever. Over five seasons. </li>
<li style="text-align: left;">As far as Corsi goes, Samuelsson's Corsi Quality of Competition was 0.914 at even strength in 2011-12 and his relative Corsi was 5.4.</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">He takes 0.7 penalties per 60 minutes, but draws 0.9 per 60. Not a huge difference, but always good to be in the positive here.</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">The Panthers averaged 2.3 even strength goals per 60 minutes with Samuelsson on the ice and while allowing 2.04, compared to 1.95 for and 2.16 against without him on the ice.</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">On the powerplay, the Panthers averaged 7.98 goals per 60 with Samuelsson and allowed 0.44 per 60. Without Samuelsson on-ice, the Panthers scored 3.27 power play goals per 60, while allowing 1.23 per 60. It's clear that Samuelsson had an impact on the Panthers' power play.</li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>So what's the verdict?</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I won't be at all surprised if Samuelsson fills in for Hudler and puts up similar numbers. That may be a bit optimistic, but I think he'll fit in nicely on the third line and on the second power play unit. He's got size and is a right-handed shot, which will benefit the Wings when they have the man advantage. Of course he's going to shoot high and miss the net, but he may also hit it with some frequency, and combining that with some physical play is all he has to do for his contract to be a good deal.</div>
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<br /></div>
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According to the stats from <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/">Hockey Analysis</a>, Samuelsson is an average NHLer over the past five years, and actually has better defensive numbers than offensive. The stats from <a href="http://behindthenet.ca/">Behind the Net</a> show that he played against fairly good competition and was able to create more shots for his team when he was on-ice compared to on the bench, which fits nicely with Detroit's system. He had a moderate impact at even strength last season, and a much greater one on the powerplay.</div>
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<b>The usually complimentary video corner</b></div>
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I like these two goals more than almost anything else he did in a Wings uniform</div>
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<object class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="http://2.gvt0.com/vi/-xO_57ZN4Oo/0.jpg" height="266" width="320"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/-xO_57ZN4Oo&fs=1&source=uds" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/-xO_57ZN4Oo&fs=1&source=uds" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></div>
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Maybe this happens if we put him on a line with Datsyuk or Zetterberg</div>
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Like I said, he should step in and pick up right where Hudler left off</div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/nIe6SFqCUGE?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
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<br /></div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-60155602558228450942012-07-10T21:39:00.001-04:002012-07-10T21:39:27.124-04:00Potential Red Wings Alumni Showdown Roster<br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/lids2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><img border="0" height="218" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/lids2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Hey look, one of our old-timers is also the best defenseman in the world. Good luck, Toronto.</i></div>
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<br /></div>
Lost amidst the craziness surrounding free agency and development camp was the news that on Wednesday the Red Wings would release the roster for the Alumni Showdown, the headlining event of Hockeytown Winter Fest. I'll let Toronto bloggers take care of their own business, but I decided to take a stab at what I think (and hope) Detroit's roster might look like.<br />
<br />
My roster was created using the current Wings alumni team as a base, then adding players that I thought still had a reasonable chance of being able to skate. I'd love to see Mr. Hockey and Terrible Ted suit up for just one shift, but is that truly reasonable? Maybe. According to <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/cotsonika">tweets</a> from former Wings beat writer (and current Yahoo! sports NHL writer) Nick Cotsonika, Mark Howe mentioned after the alumni game in Philly that Mr. Hockey would like to take an alumni game shift himself. Cotsonika also tweeted that Ted Lindsay looked great and would probably play in the alumni game.<br />
<br />
The biggest news regarding alumni rosters was the <a href="http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120209/SPORTS0103/202090449/">Detroit News article</a> that reported Steve Yzerman doesn't expect to play for the Detroit alums. I have a hard time believing this. Let's read between the lines here.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #2c2c2c; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;">"At this time I don't plan on participating in the alumni game but hope to watch the (Winter) Classic on TV."</span></blockquote>
"At this time..." leaves a lot of wiggle room for a change of heart in the future. Kris Draper is trying to convince Yzerman to play, and undoubtedly dozens of other former Wings have done so over the past few months. While I understand that Stevie Y hasn't skated since he retired, I'd be perfectly fine with him taking just one shift. The point of the alumni game is the history of the franchise, the history behind the infamous winged wheel. Seeing Yzerman in a Detroit sweater one more time is a nod to that history, and him playing in the game is more about this than any contribution in terms of goals or assists.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Forwards</b></div>
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Shanahan-Yzerman-Fedorov</div>
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Redmond-Larionov-Hull</div>
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<br /></div>
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Maltby-Draper-McCarty</div>
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<br /></div>
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Kocur-Polonich-Ciccarelli</div>
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<br /></div>
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Ogrodnick-Dionne-Brown</div>
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<br />
Also, pencil S. Kozlov in somewhere. It's not likely that Fedorov will play, so Kozlov may be able to fill that spot on the roster.<br />
<br /></div>
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<b>Defesnemen</b></div>
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Lidstrom-Murphy</div>
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<br /></div>
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Rafalski-Chelios</div>
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<br /></div>
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Coffey-M.Howe</div>
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<br /></div>
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Fetisov-Larson</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Goalies</b></div>
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Osgood</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Vernon</div>
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Hasek</div>
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<br />
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And yes, you can expect Hasek to talk to Ken Holland about a PTO for the 2013-14 season if he plays well in his one period between the pipes. Just kidding. Not really.</div>
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<br />
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
</div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-65139118437433893562012-07-08T15:21:00.001-04:002012-07-08T15:23:05.884-04:00The Offer Sheet, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Shea Weber (Contract) Bomb<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/poilezombie.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/poilezombie.jpg" width="213" /></a></div>
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<i>If David Poile looks like this after losing Ryan Suter, imagine what happens if he loses Shea Weber. Full fledged zombie Poile.</i></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Photo credit <a href="http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120706/SPORTS/307060081/2275/RSS05">The Tennessean</a></span></i></div>
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This was supposed to be the biggest offseason in a decade. The Red Wings added three future Hall of Famers to their roster the last time they were in a period of transition that even remotely resembles this one. What have they done so far this summer? Added a solid backup goalie, an agitator with little offensive upside, a flashy but unproven European star, and a player who was not resigned by Detroit the last time he reached free agency. Not exactly the blockbuster summer everyone was hoping for.<br />
<br />
Drastic times call for drastic measures, and if ever there was a drastic time this is it. Chris from Nightmare on Helm Street wrote an <a href="http://nightmareonhelmstreet.com/2012-articles/july/crazy-idea-wings-should-offer-weber-12m.html">interesting article</a> about signing Shea Weber to an offer sheet. I like his idea of throwing out an offer that David Poile can't match, but what will that take? Is there a way we can precisely pinpoint a number that Poile can't match, thereby pushing him over the brink of insanity that he's already <a href="http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120706/SPORTS/307060081/2275/RSS05">teetering on</a>?<br />
<br />
The most difficult part of signing Weber to an offer sheet is Nashville's available cap space. They have about $30 million left to spend, which is essentially a blank check. Some of that $30 million will disappear soon, as Poile doesn't have a full roster at this time. Let's take a look.<br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/predsrostercurrent.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/predsrostercurrent.png" width="417" /></a></div>
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<br />
I then tried to predict moves Nashville will make and see how much cap space was left. Winger Sergei Kostitsyn filed for salary arbitration, and they'll likely re-sign him at a higher salary than the $2.5 million he made last season. I gave him a modest raise since his production did slip, so let's assume he earns $3.00 million next season. There's a big need for help on defense, so I extended qualifying offers to Jonathon Blum and Teemu Laakso. Colin Wilson is one of the Predators' more promising young players, so let's say they sign him to a deal with a cap hit of $1.825 million, similar but slightly above his current $1.725 million hit. This still leaves Nashville with only two left wingers, and six centers. I'll be nice to them and say that they don't have to sign two left wings, but instead convert a center. This means they still have to acquire a left wing, and I'll assume they do this via free agency. They could use a veteran leader with some scoring punch, so let's say they sign Andrew Brunette to a one year, $2.2 million deal. After all this, they've still got $21.633 million in cap space.<br />
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<br />
With that much cap space, we have to be realistic. There's a very, very good chance that Nashville matches any offer another team puts on the table that's short of a one year, $22 million deal. This is their franchise player and captain, and the organization is feeling even more pressure to keep him after the departure of Ryan Suter.<br />
<br />
Regardless, Detroit can still put Nashville in a tremendously uncomfortable position. As far as the contract offer itself, <b>I think Detroit can afford to put a $12.2 million deal on the table</b>. To calculate this number, I first assumed the Wings resign Justin Abdelkader for $1.3 million per season, and Kyle Quincey for $3.78 million per. I took the Quincey figure from the <a href="http://theproductionline.us/quincey-files-for-arbitration-tpl-finds-a-way-to-make-it-interesting/">contest</a> running over on The Production Line, and the Abdelkader salary is one that I've heard he's looking for. This means that Detroit ends up with $100k if Weber doesn't get matched, and also puts them one player over the maximum.<br />
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<br />
The roster is overloaded with forwards, and someone will either have to be sent to Grand Rapids or traded to bring the roster down to the maximum of 23. Trading a forward for draft picks would hel<span style="background-color: white;">p, because if Weber signs with Detroit and isn't matched the Wings will lose four first round draft picks. The likely candidate to take his turn apprenticing in Grand Rapids is Damien Brunner, despite being billed as a top six forward by Mike Babcock. He's one of the two forwards with two way contracts, and is unproven in the NHL. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><b>So if Nashville has a blank check, why even try?</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">The facts don't exactly pain a rosy picture from the Wings' perspective. Only one player has ever signed an offer sheet and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_sheet">not been matched</a> by his current club post-lockout, but Detroit has absolutely nothing to lose and a whole lot to gain. The Wings wanted to add a top six forward and a first pair defenseman in the offseason. There aren't any top flight defensemen left on the open market, and perhaps only Keith Yandle available on the trade market.. Forwards are more available, and Detroit's forward crop is a lot stronger than their blue liners as the roster stands now. If you prioritize needs, an elite defenseman is far and away the Wings' greatest void.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">Enter Weber. A Norris trophy nominee the past two seasons, he's a true top pair guy who plays a great offensive and defensive game. Nicklas Lidstrom is absolutely irreplaceable, but I think Weber is a step closer to filling those skates than even Ryan Suter would have been. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">For once, Detroit has leverage. They had none with Suter and Zach Parise, instead having to wait and hope against hope that one of them would chose Detroit as the issuer of their paychecks for the next decade plus. The Wings now have an opportunity to be the aggressor and show that they are in no way rebuilding, but instead are looking to reload and make another run for the Cup.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><b>So, let's say the Wings give Weber an offer sheet. What's next?</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">What's the worst that could happen? They put a huge offer on the table and Weber turns it down. At the very least he knows that Detroit sees him as a part of their future plans, and should he make it to free agency in 2013 he knows we'll be right there waiting to hand him a long term deal. If Nashville matches, it guarantees he becomes a free agent in 2013 and the same scenario is in play; Mr. Weber, here's the vault. Help yourself.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">Let's say Weber signs the offer sheet, and Nashville doesn't match. After all, they've got to lock up Patric Hornqvist to a long term deal in the next year, as he's one of the few scorers they have. Beyond Hornqvist, take a look at this. It speaks for itself.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
That's a lot of free agents. Best case scenario? Weber signs, and Poile can't or won't match. Detroit gets one year to enjoy the services of a top five blue liner, and also gets a year to impress him and hopefully sign him for the long haul.<br />
<br />
<b>Ken Holland is obviously smarter than you, ya blogger. There's gotta be a catch.</b><br />
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There's one caveat to the Weber contract. We can't continue to pay him $12.2 million over a multi-year deal. Sure, there's money to throw out this offseason, but who knows what the next CBA will bring. Weber's signing would have to (or at least should) come with a gentlemen's agreement that, should Weber become a Red Wing, he'd have to take less to stay here after 2012-13. Not the whole "we're the Wings so everyone should want to play for us because mystique original six Gordie Stevie blah" discount, but down to fair market value. I wouldn't have a problem making Weber the highest paid defenseman in the league, so perhaps we could mention that a new contract would have an annual cap hit of about $8 million.<br />
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<b>Pssh, this isn't Detroit's kind of move. They preach patience, there's no way they do this.</b><br />
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It's true, as an organization patience has been a virtue for a long time. I have no problem with that, as I appreciate patience and think that panic button moves can get you in over your head quicker than you could every imagine. There comes a time, however, where patience has run it's course. Detroit has been extolling the virtues of waiting for over a year now, and in that time little has been done to make the team better. It's time to use some of the cap space that has been saved up on a player worth the inflated salary handed out to free agents this offseason.<br />
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<b>Why is now the right time?</b><br />
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Weber's stunned, Poile's stunned, most of Nashville is probably stunned. Now's the time to make a bold move. Something needs to be done to quell the nerves of a fanbase that has seen the last links to the glory of the late nineties and two thousands walk away slowly put surely over the past few seasons.<br />
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If you're wondering why the face of Nashville hockey would contemplate signing with their biggest rival, take a look at <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/operation-shea-weber-nashville-full-effect-210657854--nhl.html">this post</a> from Puck Daddy. It nicely summarizes some of the reasons he may look elsewhere. Nashville isn't exactly getting a ringing endorsement from his agents, that's for sure
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<b>About that other forward....</b><br />
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If you think that the Wings shouldn't pursue Weber but should instead sign Shane Doan or Alex Semin and look for another defenseman elsewhere, I understand your stance. However, I ask you this; would you rather see Shane Doan in a Wings jersey for a couple of seasons, or one of the top five defensemen in the league patrolling the blue line for one year, with a possibility of keeping that player in Detroit for years to come. I've always been a defense-first guy, so I'm putting my money on the latter. Now all we can do is sit back and see whether the Wings' front office feels the same.<br />
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-50191364406155365642012-07-03T22:37:00.001-04:002012-07-03T23:06:30.401-04:00Welcome to Detroit: Damien Brunner<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i>Damien Brunner looks like one of the Backstreet Boys and heals sick children. Watch out, Dos Equis guy.</i></div>
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<b>Articles? Articles!</b></div>
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Brunner has never played an NHL game, so there are no advanced stats to put in this space. Instead of numbers, you're going to get words.Words, and a lot of links.</div>
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<li>Looking for a <a href="http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=18949">quick scouting report</a>? According to eliteprospects.com, Brunner is "a slick offensive forward who can shoot as well as pass the puck. Has great wheels and hands. Plays a gritty game."</li>
<li>Mike Babcock didn't shy away from <a href="http://www.freep.com/article/20120702/SPORTS05/207020348/Swiss-signee-Damian-Brunner-has-potential-to-play-in-Red-Wings-top-six-forwards">praising Brunner</a>. Seriously, we're talking Helm-like praise here [Ed. note: it's almost impossible to write a sentence with "praise" in it and not accidentally write "Parise." Please note that this was written on the third day of free agency insanity, a time in which flightaware.com has become a major player, along with a <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/RyanSutersCow">cow from Ryan Suter's farm</a>]. It's worth reading the article for Babcock's full quote, but he mentions that he envisions Brunner being a top 6 forward for Detroit, and it sounds like he means this coming season. Babs likes Brunner's right-handed shot on the powerplay, though the signing of fellow right-hander Mikael Samuelsson may take away some of the PP time Brunner would have gotten if he made the big club.</li>
<li>Ken Holland shared Mike Babcock's enthusiasm, saying that Brunner will get a <a href="http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120701/SPORTS0103/207010337/1361/Wings-sign-high-scoring-Swiss-forward-Damien-Brunner">chance to play with Detroit's best players </a>and see where it goes. Though it's pure speculation at this point, the natural extension of this is for Brunner to get some preseason time on both Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg's line.</li>
<li>A more <a href="http://www.redwingscentral.com/prospects/damien-brunner/">thorough scouting report </a>from Red Wings Central shares some of the same sentiments I had after watching film of Brunner; great skater, good shot, intelligent shooter, and a phenomenal stickhandler at full speed. </li>
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<b>So what's the verdict?</b></div>
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This could be another one of Detroit's under-the-radar acquisitions of top European talent at a bargain, even though it wasn't via the draft in this instance. The Wings' European scouting staff got the attention of Ken Holland and Mike Babcock in a year that just happened to feature a World Championship. This perfect storm of events allowed Brunner to showcase his talent against top players, in addition to allowing Holland and Babcock to get an up close and in-person look. This may be the one and only reason to be thankful for Detroit's first round exit.</div>
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In short, there's a whole lot of potential here without a whole lot of risk. According to <a href="http://capgeek.com/search.php?search_criteria=brunner">Cap Geek</a>, Brunner signed a one year, $925,000 deal with a cap hit of $1.35 million. Not a bad deal at all for a player who is something of a known quantity to the Wings. Though it's difficult to tell how his game will translate to a smaller rink, Brunner has competed against NHL-level competition in the World Championship and performed at a point-per-game pace. I may end up looking really stupid in a few years (thanks for archiving everything, Google) but I believe that Brunner could be the next Valtteri Filppula, and has the upside to be the next Datsyuk or Zetterberg. I see him as more of a Datsyuk or Zetterberg in terms of skill, but he needs to work on his defensive game is he wants to be more than just another top six forward.</div>
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As for this coming season, I view it as feast or famine for Brunner. Either he makes the Wings and earns a spot among the top six forwards, or he goes the traditional Grand Rapids apprenticeship route. I don't see any sense is letting him toil on the third or fourth lines, or even worse, playing sporadically or sparsely. Brunner could use time to develop and adjust to the North American game/rink, and if he's talented enough for that development to take place at the NHL level then so be it. If it needs to take place in Grand Rapids then that's okay too, though Detroit may have been more comfortable with this option if Brunner was signed to a multi-year deal.</div>
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<b>Video</b></div>
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Some of these have soundtracks comprised of hard rock that is in English, and others have soundtracks comprised of hard rock that is not in English. Listen at your own risk.</div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
</div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-72366801672593958412012-07-02T22:32:00.001-04:002012-07-02T23:22:23.287-04:00Welcome to Detroit: Jonas Gustavsson<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/monster.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/monster.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Image via <a href="http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/article/1127574--toronto-maple-leafs-goalie-jonas-gustavsson-expected-to-start-against-winnipeg-jets">thestar.com</a></span></div>
The first of four Detroit signings on the opening day of free agency, Jonas "The Monster" Gustavsson escaped the villainous reign of Toronto's Francois Allaire, and in the process left the "center of the hockey universe" for Hockeytown. Jim Bedard and company will have an opportunity to work with a goaltender who wanted to <a href="http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/tmr/comments/red_wings_sign_jonas_the_monster_gustavsson/">"keep [his] development going in the right direction."</a><br />
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<b>Numbers? Numbers!</b></div>
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<li>Let's start with the basics. Gustavsson was 17-17-4 in 2011-12 with a 2.92 GAA and .902 save %.He allowed 112 goals on 1,147 shots faced.</li>
<li>Time for the heavy duty mumbo jumbo. At even strength, Gustavsson allowed 2.83 goals/60 while facing 26.8 shots against/60.</li>
<li>When he was off the ice, Toronto allowed 5.58 even strength goals/60 on 17.9 shots against/60.</li>
<li>Gustavsson was supported by 24.6 shots for/60 while on-ice, though Toronto put 33.2 shots for/60 on net when the Monster was on the bench.</li>
<li>What's the point of all of this? Essentially, the Maple Leafs played worse in front of Gustavsson at even strength than they did when someone else was between the pipes. This means that his numbers may be a bit skewed. </li>
<li>The next set of numbers comes from stats.hockeyanalysis.com, a site which I commonly use when looking at skaters. Honestly, I've never used it for goalies and won't pretend to be an expert here. The one thing I do know is that the more years we group together the more reliable the information, and that 1.0 is an average rating for HARD+. Someone has a HARD+ of 1.136? They perform 13.6% better than an average player. HARD+ of 0.89? They're performing 11% below average.</li>
<li>From 2009-12, Gustavsson's HARD+ at even strength (zone start adjusted) is 0.850. Everything listed below will be from the same period of time.</li>
<li>In tied games, his 5v5 zone start adjusted HARD+ is 0.876. When up 1 goal, his 5v5 zone start adjusted HARD+ is 0.888. Up 2 goals, and his 5v5 zone start adjusted HARD+ falls to 0.742.</li>
<li>Down 1 goal at even strength, his HARD+ is 0.706. Ouch. Down 2 goals he's a little better, with a HARD+ of 0.769.</li>
<li>On the powerplay, Gustavsson's HARD+ is 1.316. Woot no shorties! I guess. Short handed, his HARD+ drops to 0.796. </li>
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<b>So what's the verdict?</b></div>
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Looks like we've got ourselves a backup goaltender who could be anywhere between "good" and "serviceable." I see two differences between Gustavsson and former backup Ty Conklin. First, Gustavsson is young and generally considered to have a great deal of potential that can still be extracted under the watchful eyes of Jim Bedard and Chris Osgood. Conklin came back for his second tour of duty in Detroit on his last legs and in the twilight of his career. Second, Gustavsson's HARD+ numbers are fairly consistent across situations, especially when compared against Conklin's numbers. Check out Conklin's stats <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=803">here</a>, and you'll see that he's either good or absolutely abysmal. I'll take the younger player with potential and consistency over the inconsistent veteran any day. No disrespect intended to Conklin, as I liked him in his first stint with the Wings and rooted for him in his second. At this time, however, a change had to be made, and I think that Ken Holland went in the right direction.</div>
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<b>Videos</b></div>
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You'll probably want to watch this on mute</div>
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Weird begining, but a lot of good SEL film</div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
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<br />Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-58048769573849905902012-06-27T00:18:00.002-04:002012-06-27T00:18:59.662-04:00Shana-hold OnThis morning, the topic of discussion on NHL Home Ice radio naturally turned to Hall of Fame nominees. The hosts said there were two shoo-ins; Joe Sakic and Brendan Shanahan. They then debated the merits of Adam Oates, Pavel Bure, and Mats Sundin. <div>
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Four out of five of the aforementioned players will be a part of the Hall's 2012 class, with the only player left out being one of the shoo-ins. A lot of Red Wings fans are upset, and deservedly so. Need to alleviate some frustration? Watch this:</div>
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Sniper, comedian, and league disciplinarian. Brendan Shanahan: renaissance man.</div>
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In blog related matters, I apologize for not having any draft coverage this year. It coincided with moving, and I was too busy packing and unpacking to get anything pulled together. Luckily, there are a lot of other great Wings blogs that did a phenomenal job of covering it all. I'll be posting lengthy "Welcome to Detroit" posts for all of the Wings' free agent signings, so be sure to check back on Sunday.</div>
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<br /></div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-21688430783770789682012-06-14T23:12:00.004-04:002012-06-14T23:12:56.589-04:00Sign on the Dotted Line: A Brief Look at the Red Wings' Free Agent TargetsI wanted to create a resource where a relatively brief summary of each of Detroit's free agent targets was housed on one page. Hopefully this is helpful for those interested in a little more in-depth info about the talent pool available. I'll be updating this frequently leading up to July 1st, so check back for more.<br />
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<b>Forwards</b><br />
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<b>Zach Parise:</b> See my post <a href="http://theoctopigarden.blogspot.com/2012/06/free-agent-forecasting-zach-parise.html">here</a>.<br />
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<b>Alexander Semin:</b> Most things I've heard have been less than favorable, but there's definitely something intriguing about him. If you're looking for something more qualitative, it's the chemistry he had playing with Pavel Datsyuk at Worlds. If you're looking for something more quantitative, it comes from <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/">stats.hockeyanalysis.com</a>. Basically, a HARO+, HARD+, or HART+ rating above 1 means the player exceeded expectations, and a rating below 1 means they underperformed given their circumstances (ice time, linemates, and defensive ability of opposition). Semin's even strength HARO+ (offense) is 1.289, his HARD+ (defense) is 0.996, and his HART+ (total) is 1.143. According to <a href="http://behindthenet.ca/">behindthenet.ca</a>, he had the third highest Corsi rating of Capitals forwards (5.21), which means he gets shots to the net more frequently than he allows them. This fits nicely with the Wings possession system. The biggest issue with him? His contract. He'll have to take at least a slight paycut from the $6.7 million he made last year.<br />
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<b>Defensemen</b><br />
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<b>Ryan Suter:</b> The last part of <a href="http://theoctopigarden.blogspot.com/2012/05/free-agent-forecasting-ryan-suter.html">my post</a> needs to be updated, but the stats are all there and worth checking out.<br />
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<b>Dennis Wideman: </b>His even strength numbers aren't great (HARO+ 0.972, HARD+ 0.951, HART+ 0.961). Played over 150 minutes more than any other Washington d-man on the powerplay and had a good HARD+ (1.123). Logged 158 minutes of penalty kill time and had a better HARD+ (0.855) than teammates Karl Alzner (215 minutes, 0.623 HARD+) and John Carlson (200 minutes, 0.627 HARD+). Played in all situations, but was a secondary option on the penalty kill and played against easier competition (Relative Corsi Quality of Competition of -1.039). I'd take his 11 goals, 35 assists, and 46 points in a heartbeat if the price was right, regardless of whether Suter signs with Detroit. He's a right handed shot as well, which the Wings could use.<br />
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<b>Jason Garrison: </b>A big body (6'2", 218 lbs), he's a defensive defenseman that could fill the void left by Brad Stuart. Great even strength HARD+ (1.233) against strong competition (second highest Relative Corsi QoC of 1.015). Played second most PK minutes among Panthers defenders against the toughest competition (Relative Corsi QoC of 2.937). At 27 years old and with only 3 full season under his belt, he's just starting to come into his prime. Due a huge raise from the $700,000 he made last year. I'd love to see him wearing the Winged Wheel next season.<br />
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<b>Matt Carle: </b>He has good possession numbers, evidenced by positive on-ice Corsi at even strength, on the powerplay, and on the penalty kill. Achieved these against mediocre competition across those same situations. Didn't play a lot on special teams. At even strength, his numbers are mediocre (HARO+ 1.079, HARD+ 0.928, HART+ 1.004). Made $3.8 million this past season, scored 4 goals, and added 34 assists. I think that the Red Wings' money could be better spent elsewhere, and that signing Carle means that all of Detroit's negotiating with each of the above players fell through.<br />
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<b>Coming soon:</b> more forwards, goaltendersAdamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-82303449229690526972012-06-12T21:45:00.000-04:002012-06-13T22:42:24.169-04:0015 Years Later: What Could Have Been, and What Really Matters<i>The scene inside Joe Louis Arena's Olympia Club was an emotional one. Employees were dressed in red #16 sweaters, a reminder of the number that will soon hang from the rafters with other Red Wings legends. Vladimir Konstantinov is retiring from the game of hockey after one final Stanley Cup championship, his fourth, at the age of 41. The last of the Russian Five is gone, and one of Detroit's most dominant eras may be coming to a close. He leaves the game having cemented his legacy as one half of the greatest defense pairing of all time, </i><i>the man who traded the majority of the last decade's Norris Trophies with defense partner Nicklas Lidstrom like they were starting a D-to-D breakout.</i><br />
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It's hard to imagine, and yet it's not much of a stretch. Konstantinov was just hitting his stride during the 1996-97 season, and in many ways was overshadowing teammate, living legend, and future Hockey Hall of Famer Nicklas Lidstrom. "If you asked 100 people back then to name our best defenseman, it would be about even," Red Wings GM Ken Holland told <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3422053">ESPN The Magazine</a> in 2008. "But a few more might have said Konstantinov."<br />
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Konstantinov was coming off a season in which he was a Norris trophy finalist and finished runner-up to Brian Leetch. His combination of skill and grit was a perfect fit for a city well known for embracing blue collar players.<br />
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"Sometimes, we sit around and reflect internally," Holland told the <a href="http://www.freep.com/article/20071224/SPORTS05/71224007/2007-S-TOP-WINGS-STORIES-Remembering-crash-ruined-Stanley-Cup-celebration">Free Press</a> in 2007. "Where would we be if we'd had a healthy Konstantinov?"<br />
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On the evening of June 13, 1997, a white limousine carrying three members of the Detroit Red Wings organization streaked through the dusk and collided with a tree at 50 miles per hour. The driver, Richard Gnida, was driving with a suspended license and had previously been twice convicted of driving under the influence. He claims to have blacked out during the incident. Gnida never heard the passengers banging on the partition to try and get his attention.
<br />
<br />
Konstantinov and team masseur Sergei Mnatsakanov both sustained closed head injuries. Defenseman Slava Fetisov walked away with relatively minor injuries and rejoined the Red Wings the following season.
<br />
<br />
Mnatsakanov is mentioned less frequently than Konstantinov, but his story is just as tragic. He shares many similarities with Konstantinov. Both had defected from Russia, and both were living their dream; to be in the National Hockey League. The two had just ascended to the pinnacle of their profession when, six days later, their lives changed forever.<br />
<br />
The limousine accident is the tarnish on the silver chalice for Detroit. It's impossible to think about the 1997 championship without thinking about the accident. The two are inextricably linked.<br />
<br />
Who knows what could have happened if the accident never occurred? Does Konstantinov go on to reach the sustained level of brilliance so many think he could? Does Mnatsakanov become a<br />
<br />
Could-haves and should-haves are intriguing thoughts, but dangerous as well. One thing, however, is certain. The Red Wings repeated as Stanley Cup champions in 1998, driven by tragedy, motivated by the loss of a teammate and a member of the organization.<br />
<br />
Konstantinov and Mnatsakanov's impact extends beyond the hockey world. They reminded the world at large of the fragility of life, that no matter how high a pedestal you're put on you can always be taken back down. Most importantly, the two men showed us the power of collective belief in overcoming daunting circumstances. Konstantinov and Mnatsakanov both sustained life-threatening injuries. Today, Konstantinov is able to use his walker and Mnatsakanov his wheelchair to attend games at Joe Louis Arena. They will forever symbolize not just what it means to be a Detroit Red Wing, but what it means to be a courageous human being.<br />
<br />
The patch that adorned Detroit's jerseys throughout the 1997-98 season summed it up in two languages and one word: believe.<br />
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
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<br />Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-56342744144428426932012-06-08T21:17:00.002-04:002012-06-08T21:18:39.757-04:00Free Agent Forecasting: Zach Parise (Revised 6/8/12)<br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/parise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/parise.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i>Looks good in red, no?</i></div>
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<i><br /></i></div>
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When Mike Babcock laments the lack of forward depth, you know it's time to make some changes. When he offers to fly around the country to recruit free agents, you know that Detroit is in dire straits. Most believe that New Jersey winger Zach Parise will be near the top of the Red Wings' list of targets when July 1st rolls around, giving Detroit the additional offensive punch they lacked during the playoffs. Is Parise worth wooing, and what might it take to land him?<br />
<br />
Let's assume that Valterri Filppula isn't moved during the offseason. That means that Detroit's top six forwards could look something like this on opening night of the 2012-13 season:<br />
<br />
Nyquist-Datsyuk-Franzen<br />
___?___-Zetterberg-Filppula<br />
<br />
It may be a bit of a stretch to put Nyquist on the top line, but the chemistry he had with Pavel Datsyuk is hard to deny, and it seems silly to bury him in the bottom six with the type of playmaking ability that he possesses. This leaves one spot to be filled, and Parise could be slotted in quite nicely there. The first line has a Hart trophy caliber player in the middle, and the second line has three potential all stars. Not a bad top six.<br />
<br />
Though he may still be playing hockey with a team that's not the Detroit Red Wings, let's take a look at what Parise could bring to the organization.<br />
<br />
<b>Statistical Breakdown</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
<i>Basic Stats</i><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Parise played in all 82 games this season, scoring 31 goals and adding 38 assists for a total of 69 points. Seven of his goals came on the powerplay, and three were short handed tallies. Average time on ice was 21:29 (16:05 even strength, 3:26 powerplay, 1:57 shorthanded). </li>
<li>Took 293 shots. Blocked 39 shots. 35 givesaways were offset by 65 takeaways. </li>
<li>He was a -5 on the year. Weird stat of the day: 16 of his 32 penalty minutes came from tripping calls. </li>
</ul>
<div>
<i>Advanced Stats</i></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Parise's even strength Relative Corsi Quality of Competition is 0.731. Essentially, the higher the number the better the competition faced. For context, we'll look at some of the top players (by reputation) in the league. Datsyuk (1.169) and Claude Giroux (0.805) faced tougher competition, while offensive dynamos like Steven Stamkos (0.248) and Evgeni Malkin (0.279) racked up their numbers against relatively weaker opponents. An interesting case is current teammate Ilya Kovalchuk (0.533). Though Kovalchuk had 15 more points than Parise, it was Parise who was drawing the tougher defensive assignments. The closest Red Wing is Jiri Hudler (0.789), the very player that Parise could be replacing.</li>
<li>On-ice Corsi rating isn't as kind to Parise, and this is true for all of his Devils teammates. Corsi measures the shot differential (goals+saves+blocked shots+missed shots) per 60 minutes of even strength ice time. Parise (3.22) pales in comparison to guys like Datsyuk (19.08), Malkin (17.69), Toews (17.17), and even Joe Pavelski (12.32), but then again the highest Corsi on New Jersey belongs to Alexei Ponikarovsky (7.84). This is likely more indicative of the system utilized by New Jersey instead of a flaw in every single player on the Devils' roster. </li>
<li>Parise averages 0.99 goals, 0.71 first assists, and 0.47 second assists for 2.18 points every 60 minutes of 5v5 time he's on ice. To compare, Giroux (1.02, 1.02, 0.70 for 2.73), Datsyuk (0.82, 1.00, 0.65 for 2.47), and Malkin (1.88, 1.42, 0.36 for 3.66) all average more, but only Malkin is averaging significantly more points. For fun, let's look at the Wings' last big free agent signing, Marian Hossa. His averages (0.92, 0.92. 0.72 for 2.56) are similar to top tier players like Giroux and Datsyuk, and if Parise raised his second assist average he'd be in the same category.</li>
<li>Offensive zone start percentage isn't the be-all end-all of advanced statistical analysis, but is useful in determining how a coach views a player. If a guy's offensive zone start % is low (30-40%) then he's likely being used as a defensive specialist, while a player whose offensive zone start % is 60% or above may be viewed as a defensive liability. Parise's number (54.2%) is nothing earth-shattering. He's not being shielded from having to defend, and he's not being put on the ice solely to check. This is about what you'd expect from a good two way forward like Henrik Zetterberg (54.5%) or Datsyuk (55.5%).</li>
<li>Two statistics that I find interesting are +/- On-Ice/60 and +/- Off-Ice/60. The first looks at the average goals for per 60 minutes of even strength ice time and subtracts average goals against per 60 minutes of even strength ice time from it. The latter does the same for the team when a player is off the ice. Parise's +/-On/60 is -0.14, and his +/-Off/60 is -0.18. New Jersey allows 0.14 more goals than they score for every 60 minutes of even strength time Parise plays, while they allow 0.18 more goals than they score when he's off the ice. In other words, Parise's team is negligibly better when he's on the ice compared to when he's riding the bench. While this isn't the ringing endorsement of impact that a high +/- On/60 can provide, it isn't singularly damning either. </li>
<li>Let's look at +/-On/60 and +/-Off/60 for Parise's powerplay numbers. His +/-On/60 is 4.75, and his +/-Off/60 is 2.68. The New Jersey offense is receiving a significant boost when Parise is on the ice with the man advantage. Keep in mind that Parise averages almost 4 minutes per game on the PP, so this is a statistic worth noting.</li>
<li>Parise also plays on the penalty kill, averaging almost 2 full minutes per game. His +/-/60 numbers, however, are brutal. A +/-On/60 of -2.64 and +/-Off/60 of -0.91 is alarming enough that I dug a little deeper. Though it looks like the Devils are much worse off with Parise on the penalty kill than if they kept him on the bench, he's actually playing the second most time of any NJ forward (1.94 minutes per 60 played; Dainius Zubrus plays 1.95). He's scored three of the six shorthanded goals he was on ice for, but was also on ice for 13 goals against. I think the ice time entrusted to Parise speaks more to his skill than the +/- stats do.</li>
<li><a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201112&sit=5v5close_f10&type=goals&teamid=18&pos=forwards&minutes=50&disp=1">Hockey Analysis</a> has a unique way to look at the offensive, defensive, and total production of players. Here's the abbreviated explanation from their website (the rest of the article can be found <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/about.php">here</a>):</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 17px;">Given a large enough sample size of ice time with and against players I believe that we should have a reliable rating system in which any HARO, HARD, or HART greater than 1 indicates the player is a better than average player and anything under 1 indicates the player is a below average player. </span></blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Parise's even strength HARO+ (1.083), HARD+ (0.914), and HART+ (0.998) are all respectable and fairly close to the benchmark of 1. For comparison, we'll again look at Datsyuk (1.240, 1.404, 1.322), Zetterberg (1.366, 0.897, 1.131), Malkin (1.542, 0.898, 1.220), and Giroux (1.376, 0.920, 1.148). While all of those players have higher offensive ratings, it appears that Parise is a better even strength defender than Zetterberg and Malkin and about as good as Giroux.</li>
<li>Parise's powerplay HARO+ (1.159), HARD+ (0.601), and HART+ (0.880) are similar to Zettberg's (1.024, 0.681, 0.853). Datsyuk (1.327, 2.965, 2.146), Malkin (1.345, 0.632, 0.988), and Giroux (1.302, 0.636, 0.930) aren't favorable comparisons in this instance.</li>
<li>The penalty kill is where Parise shines. His HARO+ (2.406), HARD+ (0.913), and HART+ (1.660) are all much higher than Zetterberg (0.756, 0.677, 0.717), Datsyuk (0.000, 1.065, 0.533), Malkin (not used on PK), and Giroux's (0.720, 0.771, 0.745).</li>
<li>Perhaps the biggest strength of <a href="http://hockeyanalysis.com/">hockeyanalysis.com</a> is the ability to look at HARO+, HARD+, and HART+ over multiple seasons. Five seasons of data (2007/08-2011/12) tells us that Parise is truly a two way star. Keeping in mind that anything over 1 is an above average player, Parise's even strength HARO+ (0.976), HARD+ (1.129), and HART+ (1.052) are impressive.</li>
<li>Five year powerplay HARO+ of 1.223, HARD+ of 0.894, and HART+ of 1.058 is great.</li>
<li>Five year peanlty kill HARO+ of 2.929, HARD+ of 1.412, and HART+ of 2.170 is especially noteworthy.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Contract</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
Parise signed a one year, $6 million dollar deal in the summer of 2011 that helped avoid arbitration, but also allows him to test the waters of free agency once he has played out the season. He had a successful, if slightly subpar, regular season in 2011-12 (according to comparisons against five year averages of HARO+, HARD+, and HART+). Despite this, I don't expect Parise's paycheck to get any smaller.<br />
<br />
I wouldn't be surprised if he signs a deal for around $6.5 million per season. The cap hit could be structured to be somewhat similar to Henrik Zetterberg's at slightly over $6 million per season. At this salary and cap hit, I'd sign Parise.<br />
<br />
I don't see him as a part of the upper echelon of players in the league, and the comparisons above make this fairly obvious. At the same time, and all else being equal, he would have been the only 30 goal scorer on the Wings this season. He's a very talented player, someone I'd put in the same neighborhood as Zetterberg. It seems fair that they would then be paid accordingly; similar deals for a similar skillset.<br />
<br />
The only disturbing thing that I saw when going through the numbers was that nothing really stood out on the advanced statistics side of things when comparing him to New Jersey's other forwards. While Parise almost had a 70 point year, he wasn't clearly and distinguishably the best player on his team in any one category. If the bidding for him gets out of hand, I'd let him sign elsewhere. At $7 million a season I think his contract turns into a burden despite his talent, especially keeping in mind that Datsyuk only makes $6.7 million per season and was better in most advanced statistical categories.<br />
<br />
<i>Estimated Contract: </i>$7-7.2 million/yr<br />
<i>Estimated Value: </i>$6 million/yr<br />
<br />
<b>Can Detroit Sign Him?</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
In short, yes.<br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/parisecapadd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/parisecapadd.png" width="462" /></a></div>
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A quick disclaimer: I'd rather have Nick Lidstrom on this roster than any other player in the league. Period. It's been said over and over again, but there's no way you can replace him. Life goes on and, despite the stomach-knotting absence of the seven time Norris winner's name from the roster, there is still a roster with glaring deficiencies to fill.</div>
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I changed my earlier projection for Parise's salary and adjusted it to be closer to Pavel Datsyuk's. As time goes on, it's becoming more and more evident that this year's free agent crop is 1a) Parise 1b) Suter 234442) everyone else. A weak crop goes hand in hand with bloated salaries, and that's what the Wings will be encountering if they're looking to add help via free agency. </div>
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The good news? Detroit is well equipped to take on a boatload of salary and still have room to work with. If the Wings were to sign Suter and Parise to deals with a $7 million cap hit, they would still have almost $7 million in cap space. And that's assuming that Helm and Abdelkader get small raises, and Quincey signs an Ericsson-like contract. There's no need to worry about cap space in Detroit. There's enough to sign both of the most desirable free agent targets, and hang onto Detroit's home grown talent. Salary won't be the culprit if Parise chooses not to sign with Detroit.</div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Stats via <a href="http://behindthenet.ca/">behindthenet.ca</a> and <a href="http://hockeyanalysis.com/">hockeyanalysis.com</a>. Salary cap info via <a href="http://capgeek.com/">capgeek.com</a></span></i></div>
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</div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-78035123383659726362012-06-03T14:28:00.001-04:002012-06-03T22:40:30.405-04:00The Perfect Human by the numbers: Nicklas Lidstrom statistics and factsThere have been a wealth of personal stories published in the wake of Nicklas Lidstrom's retirement, and deservedly so. Some that stand out in my mind are Michael Petrella's <a href="http://theproductionline.us/nick-steps-away/">story</a> published at The Production Line, Helene St. James' <a href="http://www.freep.com/article/20120603/SPORTS05/206030503/Helene-St-James-Nicklas-Lidstrom-has-sense-of-humor-not-of-entitlement">account</a> published in the Detroit Free Press, and George Malik's <a href="http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/tmr/comments/red_wings_early_overnight_report_no_reason_to_hold_back_talking_bout_life_a/">post</a> (along with a bunch of other great stories from around the internet) from The Malik Report. I wrote about my feelings on the retiring legend <a href="http://theoctopigarden.blogspot.com/2012/05/lidstroms-retirement-fans-perspective.html">here</a>. It's clear that a great deal of what makes Nick so special is the impact he's had on people in and around the organization over the last 21 years.<br />
<br />
There is, however, more to the story than, well, stories. Statistics help paint an additional portion of the picture, and below you'll find plenty of them. Enjoy.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
1,564 career regular season games played<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
264 career regular season goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
878 career regular season assists<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1,142 career regular season points<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Plus 450 career +/- regular season<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
514 career penalty minutes<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
132 career powerplay goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
10 career shorthanded goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
35 career game-winning goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3,875 career shots<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6.8% career shooting percentage<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
27,790 regular season minutes played (NHL started recording
this in 1998-99 season)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
26:54 average regular season TOI (since 98-99)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
263 career playoff games played <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
54 career playoff goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
129 career playoff assists<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
183 career playoff points<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Plus 61 career playoff +/-<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
76 career playoff penalty minutes<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
30 career playoff powerplay goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3 career shorthanded playoff goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
11 career playoff game winning goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
656 career playoff shots<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
8.2% career playoff shooting percentage<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4,475 playoff minutes played (since 98-99 season)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
28:09 average playoff TOI (since 98-99)<o:p></o:p><br />
<b>31:10 average playoff TOI in 2001-02, a season in which Detroit played 23 playoff games and won the Stanley Cup, while Lidstrom won the Conn Smythe</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>1,827 total (reg season+playoffs) games played</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
318 total goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1,007 total assists<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>1,325 total points</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Plus 511 total +/-<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
162 total powerplay goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
13 total shorthanded goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
46 total game winning goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4,531 total shots<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>32,265 total minutes played since 1998-99 season</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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20 seasons played<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
20 playoff appearances<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6 Stanley Cup Finals appearances<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4x Stanley Cup champion (97,98,02,08)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
7x Norris Trophy winner (01,02,03,06,07,08,11)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
11x Norris Trophy nominee (98,99,00,01,02,03,06,07,08,09,11)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>0 Norris Trophy wins in first ten seasons<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>7 Norris Trophy wins in last ten seasons</b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6x Lady Byng nominee<o:p></o:p></div>
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1x Conn Smythe winner<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>1<sup>st</sup> European born player to win Norris Trophy<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>1<sup>st</sup> European born player to win Conn Smythe<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>1<sup>st</sup> European born player to captain a Stanley Cup
champion</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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1<sup>st</sup> Red Wings to win multiple Norris Trophies<o:p></o:p></div>
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10x first team All Star<o:p></o:p></div>
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2x second team All Star<o:p></o:p></div>
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2x All Star team captain (2000,2011)<o:p></o:p></div>
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4x Olympian<o:p></o:p></div>
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2006 Olympic Gold medal<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1 Olympic Gold medal winning goal (2006)<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2<sup>nd</sup> all-time games played as a Red Wing<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
9<sup>th</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3<sup>rd</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise assists<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4<sup>th</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise points<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1<sup>st</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise +/-…by +174<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2<sup>nd</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise powerplay goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
7<sup>th</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise shorthanded
goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
8<sup>th</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise game-winning
goals<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4<sup>th</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise game-tying
goals<o:p></o:p></div>
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6<sup>th</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise overtime goals<o:p></o:p></div>
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2<sup>nd</sup> in all-time Detroit franchise shots<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>11 all-time Detroit franchise leader categories in which Lidstrom is
in top 10 (12 are recorded on their website)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<b>1 category in which Lidstrom is not a top-ten franchise
leader (penalty minutes)</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i>Advanced stats</i><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Hockey-reference.com uses an innovative point shares system
to evaluate approximately how many of a team’s point total from the season can
be directly attributed to a certain player. Explanation of the system here:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html">http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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98.1 offensive point shares<o:p></o:p></div>
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113.6 defensive point shares<o:p></o:p></div>
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211.8 total point shares<o:p></o:p></div>
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37<sup>th</sup> all-time offensive point shares<o:p></o:p></div>
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3<sup>rd</sup> all-time defensive point shares<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>4<sup>th</sup> all-time total point shares</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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0.17 regular season goals/game<o:p></o:p></div>
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0.56 regular season assists/game<o:p></o:p></div>
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0.73 regular season points/game<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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Hockey Reference’s methodology for adjusting goals and assists is here:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/adjusted_stats.html">http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/adjusted_stats.html</a><o:p></o:p></div>
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Essentially, they’re attempting to see how goals and assists change if all past regular seasons were played under the conditions of the most recent regular season.</div>
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<br /></div>
<br />
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286 adjusted regular season goals<o:p></o:p></div>
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918 adjusted regular season assists<o:p></o:p></div>
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1,204 adjusted regular season points<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>20 seasons</b></div>
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<b>1 uniform</b></div>
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<b>1 city</b></div>
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<b>1 number soon to be retired</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Thanks, Nick.<br />
<br />
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">@TOGBlog1</span></a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
</div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-27954118388928228972012-05-31T10:04:00.000-04:002012-05-31T20:01:35.195-04:00Lidstrom's Retirement: A Fan's Perspective<br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/lidscupchamp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/lidscupchamp.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></div>
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I’ll admit it. I didn’t used to get it either. What fun was
there in no flash? What entertainment value was there in perfection? None. So
what was there? Just resolute greatness, a form of excellence so incomprehensible
that it took ten years for the rest of the league, and many Detroit faithful,
to recognize. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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When the Wings won their 1997 and 1998 Stanley Cups I was in
elementary school. Sergei Fedorov was my favorite player. He was an offensive
dynamo and had the aura of a superstar, which is the kind of stuff that appeals
to a kid just trying to figure out what “cool” is. By the time 2002 rolled
around I was in middle school, but still just as focused on this “cool” thing.
Dominik Hasek had the kind of flash and substance that I found instantly
appealing, and I soon had a new favorite player. It wasn’t until 2008 that I
started to recognize the brilliance of Nick Lidstrom.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Sure, I’d watched him for years. He was always a player I
liked, but was never my favorite. The older me did some growing up and, no
longer fixated on showmanship and pizazz, began to understand what understated
brilliance meant and that <i>that</i>, not
theatrics, was what truly defined “cool.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Since 2008 I’ve watched Lidstrom with slack-jawed awe, truly
amazed at what a player of his caliber can do. Last summer I started a project
for this blog in which I rewatched all of the 2008 Cup Finals and charted each
of his shifts. I never got around to publishing it because it just wasn’t that
interesting. He didn’t make mistakes. Ever. I only know so many adjectives to
describe Lidstrom’s play, and my post sounded like a broken record.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />
I got to meet Nick a couple of weeks ago, and he couldn't have been nicer. Rarely do we meet our idols and not get let down, but Nick Lidstrom operates in rarefied air across all domains. I've learned so much about hockey from watching him, but it's his off-ice poise that I truly admire and attempt to emulate.
<br />
<br /></div>
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I’m glad I found the time to appreciate Lidstrom’s career
before he hung up his skates for good. It’s been more than a pleasure; it’s
been an honor to watch the player whom, in my opinion, is the greatest
defenseman of all time ply his trade for my favorite team. What he’s done for
the game and for the organization can only be matched by some of the most
illustrious names in the history of the sport, and for that I extend my thanks.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The Red Wings lost more than just another defenseman today.
They lost the foundation that their defense has been built on for two decades,
a player who is unquestionably one of the top three to ever play his position.
Thank you for four Stanley Cups, seven Norris Trophys, one Conn Smythe, and 20
seasons of perfection.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">@TOGBlog1</span></a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
</div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><br /></i></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Photo credit EPA/Jeff Kowalski</span></i></div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-55594344969840815422012-05-26T20:14:00.003-04:002012-05-26T20:14:42.659-04:00Well Equipped: A Saturday at Hockeytown AuthenticsGame used equipment nerds like myself are always up for a good equipment sale, and the Red Wings' 2012 incarnation did not disappoint. <span style="text-align: left;">Red Wings equipment manager Paul Boyer was on hand to answer questions, and he brought quite the haul with him.</span> Aside from the gold standard of game used equipment (jerseys), there were skates, sticks, helmets, gloves and pant shells available. I made the trek to Troy and documented some of my visit in pictures.<br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo9.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
For those of you who haven't been there, Hockeytown Authentics is a haven of merchandise of the two Ilitch owned teams. Two old Easton hockey sticks form the door handles, as they have for at least the past ten years. "Hi, I'm Budd Lynch. <i>Welcome</i> to <i>Hockeytown</i>" greets you as you cross the threshold. Yes, there may be an olde english D on the front, but this is a Red Wings store first and foremost. Don't believe me? Look up. The rafters of Hockeytown Authentics are painted the same ugly blue as the rafters at Joe Louis Arena. There can't be many stores like this in NHL cities across North America.<br />
<br />
One of the first sections I hit this year was the skate table. I didn't see any of the skates from the big three, but there were many pairs from guys like Drew Miller and Dan Cleary.<br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo6.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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During most of the year there is one stick rack at the center of the store. Not so during the equipment sale. This year there were four, and these four racks may have been the most popular part of the sale. The red Warrior's on the left are all Henrik Zetterberg's. He had 1 24 Beast printed on the back, a tribute to fallen Red Wings Stefan Liv, Ruslan Salei and Brad McCrimmon. Other sticks in the photo belonged to Kronwall, Bertuzzi, and Filppula. Further down were a number of Conklin and Pearce sticks. Obviously not the most popular players, but goalie sticks are a rarity at the sale.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo5.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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From here, I looped back to the front of the store to check out the game used jerseys. They had home and road regular season sets 1 and 2, which had the tribute patch to McCrimmon, Salei, and Liv. The playoff set (home and road) was also on hand. Below is the captain's C from Nick Lidstrom's home set 1 sweater.</div>
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Tag stitched into the hem of each game worn jersey. This one if from the Lidstrom pictured above.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo8.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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I moved over to the playoff jerseys after this. None had a ton of wear, which isn't a surprise considering the Wings' early exit. The Zetterberg below looks like I Instagramed it, but in reality I'm just not a good photographer and probably had the flash on or something.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo1.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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Another from the home playoff set, this<span style="font-family: inherit;"> tim</span>e of TPH</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo2.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><span class="hps" style="color: #333333; text-align: -webkit-auto;">Gud</span><span style="color: #333333; text-align: -webkit-auto;"> </span><span class="hps" style="color: #333333; text-align: -webkit-auto;">förbjude, but if Lidstrom retires this will be the captain's C from the last sweater he ever wore at Joe Louis Arena.</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/photo3.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><span class="hps" style="color: #333333; text-align: -webkit-auto;"><br /></span></span></div>
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Remember earlier in the post when I mentioned that Paul Boyer was on hand to answer questions? Check back frequently. I've got something cool in the works.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">@TOGBlog1</span></a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
</div>
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<br />Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-6417954691290680652012-05-06T21:12:00.001-04:002012-05-07T07:13:48.416-04:00Free Agent Forecasting: Ryan Suter<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/suterparise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/suterparise.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: large;">Hmm...Interesting Combination</span></i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Cris Bournocle, AFP/Getty Images</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></i></div>
The Wings need another defenseman. Ryan Suter just happens to be a defenseman. Reputation and hyperbole tell us that Suter's a good one too. Should and could the Wings sign him, and for how much?<br />
<br />
Read on to find out.<br />
<br />
<b>Statistical Breakdown</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
<i>Basic Stats</i><br />
<i><br /></i><br />
<ul>
<li>Suter played in 79 games this season, and his average ice time was 26:30. He had 7 goals and 38 assists for a total of 46 points. Had 3 powerplay goals and 1 shorthanded goal. Took 134 shots. </li>
<li>Only accrued 30 penalty minutes. Had 46 hits. Blocked 116 shots. His 42 giveaways weren't quite offset by 37 takeaways.</li>
<li>Of note: 54.4% of his points came on the powerplay</li>
</ul>
<div>
<i>Advanced Stats</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Suter's even strength relative Corsi Quality of Competition is 1.262. To compare, let's look at the Norris Trophy candidates and the gold standard for modern defensemen, Nick Lidstrom. Suter's teammate Shea Weber drew slightly tougher assignments (1.332), while Zdeno Chara (1.015) and Erik Karlsson (0.675) faced weaker competition. The defensemen drawing the toughest assignments of the bunch was Nick Lidstrom (1.441), whose relative Corsi QoC ranked seventh in the league. </li>
<li>Suter's on-ice Corsi rating was bad, and yet it was still the second best on the Predators. This is indicative of Nashville's propensity to be outshot by the opposition on a regular basis. Suter checked in at -2.98, while Shea Weber was -0.90. Erik Karlsson (12.68),
Nick Lidstrom (15.24), and Zdeno Chara (17.54) all increased their team's shot totals while on the ice compared to when they were on the bench. The glass-half-full way to look at this is that Nashville only allowed three more shots than they took while Suter was on the ice, which is good relative to current teammates like Kevin Klein (-11.96) and Roman Josi (-15.23).</li>
<li>At even strength, Suter averaged 0.12 goals, 0.19 first assists, and 0.43 second assists per 60 minutes played. This averages out to 0.74 points per 60 minutes of 5v5 time. By comparison,Weber (0.27, 0.39, 0.23 for 0.90), Karlsson (0.60, 0.60, 0.52 for 1.72), Chara (0.16, 0.44, 0.64 for 1.24), and Lidstrom (0.34, 0.15, 0.29 for 0.78) all averaged more points per 60 minutes. Suter has only one area where he's stronger than the comparison subjects, and that's second assists. Even here, he only ranks higher than Weber and Lidstrom.</li>
<li>Suter isn't going to outscore his cohort (at least at even strength), so defensive metrics need to be looked at if we're going to get a fuller picture of his true value. +/- On-Ice/60 and +/- Off-Ice/60 can help here. <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The first looks at the average goals for per 60 minutes of even strength ice time and subtracts average goals against per 60 minutes of even strength ice time from it. The latter does the same for the team when a player is off the ice. Suter's +/- On-Ice/60 was 0.50 and his +/- Off-Ice/60 was -0.05, with a gap between the two of 0.55. Weber's presence had a greater impact on Nashville's scoring than Suter's, as evidenced by his</span></span> <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">+/- On-Ice/60 of 0.70 and his </span>
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">+/- Off-Ice/60 of -0.15, for a gap of 0.85. Karlsson appears to have the greatest impact on his team's performance (0.82, -0.24, gap of 1.06), followed by Chara (1.04, 0.38, gap of 0.66) and Lidstrom (1.07, 0.77, gap of 0.30).</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">As mentioned above, the majority of Suter's points this season came on the powerplay. His average powerplay ice time was 3.60 minutes. Averaging across all minutes played, Suter averaged 0.42 goals, 2.32 first assists, 1.69 second assists and 4.44 points per 60 minutes. Teammate Shea Weber averaged nearly the same points/60 (4.47), though in a very different way (2.01 goals, 1.56 first assists, 0.89 second assists, all per 60 minutes played) and in slightly less time (3.44 minutes/60). Zdeno Chara was particularly efficient with his 2.49 minutes per 60, averaging 2.44 goals, 1.83 first assists, 1.22 second assists, and 5.48 points per 60. On the other side of the coin we have Erik Karlsson, who averaged a surprisingly low 0.61 goals, 2.83 first assists, 1.01 second assists, and 4.44 points in 3.67 minutes per 60 played. Lidstrom averaged 0.98 goals, 1.47 first assists, 1.22 second assists, and 3.67 points in 3.50 minutes/60.</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">Suter averaged 2.26 minutes/60 on the penalty kill. Again, we'll compare using +/- On-Ice/60 (-4.71) and +/- Off-Ice/60 (-6.78). Weber played similar minutes (2.17 per 60) but had a bigger on-ice (-3.19) to off-ice (-8.06) differential than Suter. Chara played 2.49 minutes/60 on the PK, but seems to have adversely effected his team (-4.58 +/- On-Ice/60 vs. -4.06 +/- Off-Ice/60). Karlsson played 0.56 penalty kill minutes/60, and for good reason. His</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;"> +/- On-Ice/60 (-6.60) was brutal compared to his +/- Off-Ice/60 (-5.21). Lidstrom was used sparingly on the penalty kill, and after his ankle injury in February he was completely removed from PK duty. Over the course of the season he averaged 1.67 minutes/60, with a</span> <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">+/- On-Ice/60 of -6.68 and a +/- Off-Ice/60 of -4.80.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="line-height: 18px; margin-bottom: 0.5em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0.5em; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 2.5em; padding-right: 2.5em; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left;">
<li style="margin-bottom: 0.25em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201112&sit=5v5close_f10&type=goals&teamid=18&pos=forwards&minutes=50&disp=1" style="text-decoration: none;">Hockey Analysis</a> has a unique way to look at the offensive, defensive, and total production of players. Here's the abbreviated explanation from their website (the rest of the article can be found <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/about.php" style="text-decoration: none;">here</a>):</span></li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 17px;">Given a large enough sample size of ice time with and against players I believe that we should have a reliable rating system in which any HARO, HARD, or HART greater than 1 indicates the player is a better than average player and anything under 1 indicates the player is a below average player. </span></blockquote>
<div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul>
<li>Suter is a good player across the board at even strength. His HARO+ is 0.978, his HARD+ is 1.058, and his HART+ is 1.018. Weber (1.071, 1.142, 1.106) is better than Suter at even strength. Karlsson is a defensive liability (1.294, 0.897, 1.096). Chara (1.311, 1.012, 1.161) and Lidstrom (1.176, 1.134, 1.155) are both great across all phases.</li>
<li>There's a clear difference between Suter's powerplay HARO+ (1.263) and Weber's (1.486). Lidstrom's PP HARO+ of 1.291 is fairly close to Suter's, and both are better than Chara's 1.113 and Karlsson's 1.175. </li>
<li> Suter's penalty kill HARD+ of 0.872 puts him in the same territory as Chara (0.809) and ahead of both Karlsson (0.786) and Lidstrom (0.673). Weber's PK HARD+ of 1.111 is better than any of the other comparison subject's and is the outlier here.</li>
<li><a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/">Stats.hockeyanalysis.com</a> has data from the 2007/08 season through the 2011/12 season, and Suter's HARO+, HARD+, and HART+ over these five years was 0.833, 1.060, and 0.947, respectively. Not great offensively, but his defense has been more than solid.</li>
<li>Over the past five seasons, Suter's powerplay HARO+ has been 1.073. </li>
<li>Suter's penalty kill HARD+ over the past five years has been 1.089. </li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>Contract</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Suter's expiring contract has been paying him $3.5 million/yr over the last four seasons. He's played well enough to deserve a pay raise, and the relatively thin pool of unrestricted free agent defensemen dictates that he would have had to screw up pretty badly <i>not</i> to get more money.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
With Suter, you're getting a good defensive defenseman with moderate offensive capabilities. He should be paid as such. Shea Weber's $7.5 million salary for the 2011/12 season is the high watermark for d-men, and the comparisons above show that he's a special talent. In my mind, Suter is worth significantly less than Weber because the offensive production just isn't there. Also, there's the possibility of a "Shea Weber effect" tainting Suter's numbers. Even advanced stats can't perfectly control for the fact that Weber and Suter have played almost identical minutes across situations and have played them as defense partners. It's hard to statistically extract exactly what Suter would contribute without Weber, and vice versa.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Statistically speaking, Niklas Kronwall compares very favorably to Suter. I'd expect Suter to sign a similar but slightly larger contract than the extension Kronwall signed this past October. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i>Estimated Contract: </i>$22 million/4 years ($5.5 million/yr)</div>
<div>
<i>Estimate Value:</i> $5 million/yr</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Can Detroit Sign Him?</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
If he's willing, then easily.</div>
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<div>
This roster assumes that the salary cap goes up to the $70 million that Jim Devellano<a href="http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2012/05/wed_like_to_get_a_bit_bigger_a.html"> said last week</a> he expects it to. At that level, there could be room to sign both Suter and Parise, as well as re-sign Detroit's most important free agents. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Signing Suter gives the Wings a good top pair defenseman for years to come, someone that would pair well with Niklas Kronwall. Detroit wants to get bigger and stronger in the offseason, and Suter's 6-1', 200 pound frame fits the bill, while also giving them the top flight defenseman they need. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #666666;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter </span><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">@TOGBlog1</span></a><span style="color: #666666;"> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</span></i>
</div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Statistics in this article come from nhl.com, behindthenet.ca, and stats.hockeyanalysis.com</span><br />
<ul>
</ul>
</div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-15148063423375892092012-05-01T23:15:00.000-04:002012-05-02T00:04:25.119-04:00Babcock on why the Wings lost the Cup in 2007<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/arplkAFEM44?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
According to Mike Babcock, this play is the reason we lost the 2007 Western Conference Finals to Anaheim. Here's what Babs has to say in his recent book, <i>Leave No Doubt</i>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In the 2007 playoffs, I was coaching the Detroit Red Wings versus Scott [Niedermayer]'s Anaheim Ducks. He made a great play in Game Five to tie the game 1-1 and set them up for an overtime win. We went to Anaheim for Game Six and they knocked us out of the playoffs. Then they went on to beat Ottawa for the Stanley Cup. I believe if Scott doesn't make that play in Game Five, we win the Cup.</blockquote>
Think about that for a minute. We're one play away from winning the Cup in 2007, and one more play away from winning the Cup in 2009. That's be three Cups in three years, and the closest thing to a dynasty we've seen in professional sports in quite a while.<br />
<br />
It's painful to think about what could have been, but take some solace in this. The management in Detroit knows how to build a winning club in the post-lockout era, and if it wasn't for two plays we'd have multiple banners to show for it.<br />
<br />
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-20395877764057242602012-04-29T23:03:00.000-04:002012-04-29T23:03:09.527-04:00Free Agent Forecasting: Zach Parise<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/parise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="193" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/parise.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>Looks good in red, no?</i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
When Mike Babcock laments the lack of forward depth, you know it's time to make some changes. When he offers to fly around the country to recruit free agents, you know that Detroit is in dire straits. Most believe that New Jersey winger Zach Parise will be near the top of the Red Wings' list of targets when July 1st rolls around, giving Detroit the additional offensive punch they lacked during the playoffs. Is Parise worth wooing, and what might it take to land him?<br />
<br />
Let's assume that Valterri Filppula isn't moved during the offseason. That means that Detroit's top six forwards could look something like this on opening night of the 2012-13 season:<br />
<br />
Nyquist-Datsyuk-Franzen<br />
___?___-Zetterberg-Filppula<br />
<br />
It may be a bit of a stretch to put Nyquist on the top line, but the chemistry he had with Pavel Datsyuk is hard to deny, and it seems silly to bury him in the bottom six with the type of playmaking ability that he possesses. This leaves one spot to be filled, and Parise could be slotted in quite nicely there. The first line has a Hart trophy caliber player in the middle, and the second line has three potential all stars. Not a bad top six.<br />
<br />
Though he may still be playing hockey with a team that's not the Detroit Red Wings, let's take a look at what Parise could bring to the organization.<br />
<br />
<b>Statistical Breakdown</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
<i>Basic Stats</i><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Parise played in all 82 games this season, scoring 31 goals and adding 38 assists for a total of 69 points. Seven of his goals came on the powerplay, and three were short handed tallies. Average time on ice was 21:29 (16:05 even strength, 3:26 powerplay, 1:57 shorthanded). </li>
<li>Took 293 shots. Blocked 39 shots. 35 givesaways were offset by 65 takeaways. </li>
<li>He was a -5 on the year. Weird stat of the day: 16 of his 32 penalty minutes came from tripping calls. </li>
</ul>
<div>
<i>Advanced Stats</i></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Parise's even strength Relative Corsi Quality of Competition is 0.731. Essentially, the higher the number the better the competition faced. For context, we'll look at some of the top players (by reputation) in the league. Datsyuk (1.169) and Claude Giroux (0.805) faced tougher competition, while offensive dynamos like Steven Stamkos (0.248) and Evgeni Malkin (0.279) racked up their numbers against relatively weaker opponents. An interesting case is current teammate Ilya Kovalchuk (0.533). Though Kovalchuk had 15 more points than Parise, it was Parise who was drawing the tougher defensive assignments. The closest Red Wing is Jiri Hudler (0.789), the very player that Parise could be replacing.</li>
<li>On-ice Corsi rating isn't as kind to Parise, and this is true for all of his Devils teammates. Corsi measures the shot differential (goals+saves+blocked shots+missed shots) per 60 minutes of even strength ice time. Parise (3.22) pales in comparison to guys like Datsyuk (19.08), Malkin (17.69), Toews (17.17), and even Joe Pavelski (12.32), but then again the highest Corsi on New Jersey belongs to Alexei Ponikarovsky (7.84). This is likely more indicative of the system utilized by New Jersey instead of a flaw in every single player on the Devils' roster. </li>
<li>Parise averages 0.99 goals, 0.71 first assists, and 0.47 second assists for 2.18 points every 60 minutes of 5v5 time he's on ice. To compare, Giroux (1.02, 1.02, 0.70 for 2.73), Datsyuk (0.82, 1.00, 0.65 for 2.47), and Malkin (1.88, 1.42, 0.36 for 3.66) all average more, but only Malkin is averaging significantly more points. For fun, let's look at the Wings' last big free agent signing, Marian Hossa. His averages (0.92, 0.92. 0.72 for 2.56) are similar to top tier players like Giroux and Datsyuk, and if Parise raised his second assist average he'd be in the same category.</li>
<li>Offensive zone start percentage isn't the be-all end-all of advanced statistical analysis, but is useful in determining how a coach views a player. If a guy's offensive zone start % is low (30-40%) then he's likely being used as a defensive specialist, while a player whose offensive zone start % is 60% or above may be viewed as a defensive liability. Parise's number (54.2%) is nothing earth-shattering. He's not being shielded from having to defend, and he's not being put on the ice solely to check. This is about what you'd expect from a good two way forward like Henrik Zetterberg (54.5%) or Datsyuk (55.5%).</li>
<li>Two statistics that I find interesting are +/- On-Ice/60 and +/- Off-Ice/60. The first looks at the average goals for per 60 minutes of even strength ice time and subtracts average goals against per 60 minutes of even strength ice time from it. The latter does the same for the team when a player is off the ice. Parise's +/-On/60 is -0.14, and his +/-Off/60 is -0.18. New Jersey allows 0.14 more goals than they score for every 60 minutes of even strength time Parise plays, while they allow 0.18 more goals than they score when he's off the ice. In other words, Parise's team is negligibly better when he's on the ice compared to when he's riding the bench. While this isn't the ringing endorsement of impact that a high +/- On/60 can provide, it isn't singularly damning either. </li>
<li>Let's look at +/-On/60 and +/-Off/60 for Parise's powerplay numbers. His +/-On/60 is 4.75, and his +/-Off/60 is 2.68. The New Jersey offense is receiving a significant boost when Parise is on the ice with the man advantage. Keep in mind that Parise averages almost 4 minutes per game on the PP, so this is a statistic worth noting.</li>
<li>Parise also plays on the penalty kill, averaging almost 2 full minutes per game. His +/-/60 numbers, however, are brutal. A +/-On/60 of -2.64 and +/-Off/60 of -0.91 is alarming enough that I dug a little deeper. Though it looks like the Devils are much worse off with Parise on the penalty kill than if they kept him on the bench, he's actually playing the second most time of any NJ forward (1.94 minutes per 60 played; Dainius Zubrus plays 1.95). He's scored three of the six shorthanded goals he was on ice for, but was also on ice for 13 goals against. I think the ice time entrusted to Parise speaks more to his skill than the +/- stats do.</li>
<li><a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201112&sit=5v5close_f10&type=goals&teamid=18&pos=forwards&minutes=50&disp=1">Hockey Analysis</a> has a unique way to look at the offensive, defensive, and total production of players. Here's the abbreviated explanation from their website (the rest of the article can be found <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/about.php">here</a>):</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #111111; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 17px;">Given a large enough sample size of ice time with and against players I believe that we should have a reliable rating system in which any HARO, HARD, or HART greater than 1 indicates the player is a better than average player and anything under 1 indicates the player is a below average player. </span></blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Parise's even strength HARO+ (1.083), HARD+ (0.914), and HART+ (0.998) are all respectable and fairly close to the benchmark of 1. For comparison, we'll again look at Datsyuk (1.240, 1.404, 1.322), Zetterberg (1.366, 0.897, 1.131), Malkin (1.542, 0.898, 1.220), and Giroux (1.376, 0.920, 1.148). While all of those players have higher offensive ratings, it appears that Parise is a better even strength defender than Zetterberg and Malkin and about as good as Giroux.</li>
<li>Parise's powerplay HARO+ (1.159), HARD+ (0.601), and HART+ (0.880) are similar to Zettberg's (1.024, 0.681, 0.853). Datsyuk (1.327, 2.965, 2.146), Malkin (1.345, 0.632, 0.988), and Giroux (1.302, 0.636, 0.930) aren't favorable comparisons in this instance.</li>
<li>The penalty kill is where Parise shines. His HARO+ (2.406), HARD+ (0.913), and HART+ (1.660) are all much higher than Zetterberg (0.756, 0.677, 0.717), Datsyuk (0.000, 1.065, 0.533), Malkin (not used on PK), and Giroux's (0.720, 0.771, 0.745).</li>
<li>Perhaps the biggest strength of <a href="http://hockeyanalysis.com/">hockeyanalysis.com</a> is the ability to look at HARO+, HARD+, and HART+ over multiple seasons. Five seasons of data (2007/08-2011/12) tells us that Parise is truly a two way star. Keeping in mind that anything over 1 is an above average player, Parise's even strength HARO+ (0.976), HARD+ (1.129), and HART+ (1.052) are impressive.</li>
<li>Five year powerplay HARO+ of 1.223, HARD+ of 0.894, and HART+ of 1.058 is great.</li>
<li>Five year peanlty kill HARO+ of 2.929, HARD+ of 1.412, and HART+ of 2.170 is especially noteworthy.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Contract</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
Parise signed a one year, $6 million dollar deal in the summer of 2011 that helped avoid arbitration, but also allows him to test the waters of free agency once he has played out the season. He had a successful, if slightly subpar, regular season in 2011-12 (according to comparisons against five year averages of HARO+, HARD+, and HART+). Despite this, I don't expect Parise's paycheck to get any smaller.<br />
<br />
I wouldn't be surprised if he signs a deal for around $6.5 million per season. The cap hit could be structured to be somewhat similar to Henrik Zetterberg's at slightly over $6 million per season. At this salary and cap hit, I'd sign Parise.<br />
<br />
I don't see him as a part of the upper echelon of players in the league, and the comparisons above make this fairly obvious. At the same time, and all else being equal, he would have been the only 30 goal scorer on the Wings this season. He's a very talented player, someone I'd put in the same neighborhood as Zetterberg. It seems fair that they would then be paid accordingly; similar deals for a similar skillset.<br />
<br />
The only disturbing thing that I saw when going through the numbers was that nothing really stood out on the advanced statistics side of things when comparing him to New Jersey's other forwards. While Parise almost had a 70 point year, he wasn't clearly and distinguishably the best player on his team in any one category. If the bidding for him gets out of hand, I'd let him sign elsewhere. At $7 million a season I think his contract turns into a burden despite his talent, especially keeping in mind that Datsyuk only makes $6.7 million per season and was better in most advanced statistical categories.<br />
<br />
<i>Estimated Contract: </i>$6.5 million/yr<br />
<i>Estimated Value: </i>$6-6.5 million/yr<br />
<br />
<b>Can Detroit Sign Him?</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
In short, yes.<br />
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It's possible, as long as Nick Lidstrom and Tomas Holmstrom are willing to take a paycut to make the team better. Let's assume the cap goes up by $3 million this offseason, which is modest compared to recent years but seems reasonable given the impending expiration of the CBA and the need to re-negotiate a deal. This hypothetical scenario leaves Quincey the odd man out, and also modestly increases Helm and Abdelkader's salaries. It also assumes the signing of another key free agent (look at the defensemen and you'll see who the next Free Agent Forecasting post is going to be about). All told, it's very fiscally possible to bring Parise into the fold.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know (and follow me) on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><br /></i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Stats via <a href="http://behindthenet.ca/">behindthenet.ca</a> and <a href="http://hockeyanalysis.com/">hockeyanalysis.com</a>. Salary cap info via <a href="http://capgeek.com/">capgeek.com</a></span></i></div>
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</div>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-4911139477609253692012-04-26T07:20:00.000-04:002012-04-26T07:20:26.122-04:00Looking Forward to Free Agents<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/kenny.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="173" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/kenny.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>More of this, please</i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><br /></i></div>
It's April, and I'm thinking about starting a countdown clock to July 1st. This is a sure sign that something has gone wrong in Hockeytown.<br />
<br />
This may be the most important offseason of Ken Holland's career, and is certainly the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Detroit_Red_Wings_seasons">most important offseason since 2001</a>. An eerily similar pattern of early round exits was quelled when the additions of Dominik Hasek, Brett Hull, and Luc Robitaille helped bolster an already strong team and resulted in the 2002 Stanley Cup. Will Holland be able to make similarly impactful moves, and in what ways might he be able to do so?<br />
<br />
One way that won't work? Trading. If this past season's trade deadline was any indication, then the irrationally high prices commanded in the trade market will deter Detroit from doing much via this avenue.<br />
<br />
Free agency may be the best option for adding to the Red Wings roster, as the cap space Holland preserved from last summer will only increase with the possible departures of some players (i.e. Brad Stuart) and a likely raise of the salary cap. Holland may look to make a big splash in free agency this offseason, with Ryan Suter and Zach Parise as numbers 1a and 1b on the Wings' want list.<br />
<br />
Though there will be a sizable amount of money to play with and two All Star caliber free agents available, that doesn't necessarily mean that Holland has to land the pair. Or does he? Over the next few months I'll be analyzing potential free agent targets in tremendously hockey-nerdy depth. The goal of this project is twofold; to see what certain players could add to the Wings statistically, and to see what that addition will cost financially.<br />
<br />
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Have suggestions for who I should analyze? Let me know on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"> </span>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-17599364435075671642012-04-22T00:55:00.003-04:002012-04-22T00:56:58.186-04:00The Road Less Traveled...Since the CapI couldn't write this until it felt real. Last night night Detroit was eliminated from the playoffs, but it just hadn't set in yet. It still felt like there could be a game Sunday. There may be something happening Sunday, but it's going to be a locker room clean out and not a game.<br />
<br />
The facts are the facts, and Detroit has failed to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the past three seasons. There will be significant changes to the roster this offseason because there <i>has</i> to be. Detroit has the cap space to operate like they haven't in years past, and if the cap goes up once again and Nick Lidstrom (God forbid) retires, the Wings will have more money to spend on free agents than they have since the cap was instituted.<br />
<br />
Mike Babcock said that the Wings <a href="http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/tmr/comments/red_wings_coach_mike_babcock_dissatisfied_with_his_teams_depth_up_front/">weren't deep enough up front</a> to win the series. From this, it isn't too hard to surmise that the Wings will make a push for a top-six forward during free agency. They'll likely attempt to sign a top-two defeneseman as well. Though Babcock stated that the depth on the back end was a strength, there's a possibility that two of Detroit's top four won't be on the roster when training camp starts (Stuart and Lidstrom).<br />
<br />
One way to go about analyzing the offseason is to frame it through the complaints of many fans, and these complaints were nicely assembled in<a href="http://sharkcircle.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/what-the-heck-happened-to-the-mighty-detroit-red-wings/"> an article</a> by Shark Circle. This is also a nice metaphor for how strange this postseason has been. A Sharks blog is writing and writing well about the Wings and their offseason needs.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://sharkcircle.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/what-the-heck-happened-to-the-mighty-detroit-red-wings/">The article</a> bemoans the lack of spending on free agents Detroit has done in the past three years. The reasons that Ken Holland put away the checkbook are two-fold. First, the organization has been trying to utilize the framework it built in which prospects are left to marinate in the minors until they're very well seasoned, at which point they're brought up and given a fair shot on the big team. It's been an organizational pillar since the lockout to focus more on drafting and developing talent in house, as the days of Wild West offseasons where money and contracts flow and three future Hall of Famers are added to a roster have passed us by. Second, there just haven't been choice free agents to spend on. Last season had an especially weak crop, and Ken Holland isn't going to make a move simply to make one. He's still an efficient manager, and he made the choice to wait until the trade deadline and see what was available instead of overspend on replacement-level talent. Things fell the wrong way at the trade deadline, and now Holland looks a bit more foolish for not making moves last summer.<br />
<br />
Many may have wondered whether Holland has gradually become afraid to trade, and there's no denying that it could appear this way due to the inactivity of the Wings in the offseason and to a lesser extent at the deadline. <a href="http://sharkcircle.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/what-the-heck-happened-to-the-mighty-detroit-red-wings/">Shark Circle</a> uses San Jose as an example of moving packages of players to get high quality young talent, the kind that is rarely available in free agency. The problem with making these kinds of moves is that you essentially have to mortgage your present to have a brighter future, and that's something the Wings don't have an interest in. Babcock <a href="http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/tmr/comments/red_wings-predators_game_5_tailings_quips_quotes_video_and_a_scapegoat/">stressed last night</a> that Detroit wants to win and win <i>now</i>, not rest on their laurels and back into a playoff spot.<br />
<br />
I would be very hesitant to say that there's a disconnect between Babcock and Holland, even if it does seem that the coach is asking for roster moves that the general manager has yet to deliver. I believe that both understand the issues the team has, and that they each want the same thing to remedy this. The Wings had some cap room that they didn't expect to have because of the suddenness of Brian Rafalski's retirement, and they did what they were able to do without being irresponsible. Detroit pushed for James Wisniewski last offseason, but he signed with Columbus during the five minute window in which they were a fashionable spot and a trendy playoff pick, having just picked up the since-traded Jeff Carter. Detroit had to settle for the next best option, which was Ian White.<br />
<br />
Detroit also made a push for Jaromir Jagr, who appeared to be a wild card and something of a risk because of his time away from the league. The Wings were afraid to overspend on a potential bust, and it's possible that memories of how long it took for Jiri Hudler to readjust to the NHL from the KHL scared them off when Jagr's asking price went up precipitously thanks to the Flyers and their offer.<br />
<br />
This is the most important offseason for the Wings since 2001, when they were facing a similarily uncomfortable early exit and a need to retool. That was the year Hasek, Hull, and Robitaille were added over the summer, additions that led to a Stanley Cup the next June. The salary cap makes it difficult for that much talent to be added in one offseason, but it's not impossible to add the necessary pieces to Detroit's roster.<br />
<br />
Everyone would likely be able to embrace the addition of Zach Parise up front and Ryan Suter on the backend, one a true top-three forward and the other a top-two defensemen that has yet to peak. Typically I'd feel the need to come up with some caveat, or at the very least list a couple of players that fill similar needs but don't carry the same price tag. Not this time. Parise and Suter are two high profile free agents, and attempting to sign them should be at the absolute top of Ken Holland's to-do list. For the first time in the post-cap world, Detroit can act like the Detroit of the mid 90's and early 00's. They can once again spend wildly, and hope to lock down a couple of perennial All Stars in the process.<br />
<br />
I would be shocked if Holland didn't look to make a couple of high impact moves this offseason. There's no need to rip this team apart; a couple of strong roster additions would put Detroit in Cup contention again. Holland being told that he isn't allowed to spend to the absolute ceiling of the cap would be a tremendous surprise, at least judging by the Tigers payroll and the<a href="http://www.ilitchholdings.com/LeadershipTeam/MichaelIlitch.aspx"> revenue of Illitch Holdings in 2011</a> (9th paragraph). I expect that he will take advantage of this.<br />
<br />
There's a critical point in the franchise's history fast approaching, as the retirement of Nick Lidstrom will in all likelihood be coupled with that of Tomas Holmstrom. Whether it's this offseason or next, that signals the end of an era. Whether the Wings remain a Cup contender will be determined by the strength of their roster, and the strength of that roster can be further developed this offseason. Moves must be made, changes must occur, and faith must be restored. This is an anxiety provoking time to be a Detroit fan, but there are potentially exiting additions waiting in the wings.<br />
<br />
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"> </span>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-2384541596331273872012-04-17T23:46:00.000-04:002012-04-18T21:48:30.484-04:00Optimism? Don't Lose It Just Yet<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/mulerinne.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/mulerinne.jpg" width="276" /></a></div>
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<i>It's not impossible. Pucks do get past him</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>Photo credit <a href="http://apps.detroitnews.com/apps/multimedia/gallery.php?id=14117">John T. Greilick/The Detroit News</a></i></span></div>
<br />
I haven't checked Twitter yet. Quite frankly, I'm scared to. I know that heading over there will just mean more exposure to the doom and gloom I'm already feeling, exacerbating the feeling of emptiness over the events that, like they have so frequently during this postseason, couldn't and wouldn't go the way any Wings fan imagined.<br />
<br />
The plot points in this series have already been laid. There's no sense in backtracking, as that won't change the cruel reality of a 3-1 series deficit. That means the only place to turn is the future, where hope may be waning but hasn't been extinguished.<br />
<br />
Detroit has put 138 shots on net this series, with only 8 of those 138 getting behind Pekka Rinne. The Wings have had over 40 shots in each of their home games thus far, and yet haven't won either. The uncomfortable truth is that the only game Detroit has won is the one that appeared to be their worst performance of the series, registering less than 20 shots on net in Game 2.<br />
<br />
This series isn't and has never been about the best team. Frankly, the best team isn't winning. Nashville handily outplayed Detroit in Game 2 and didn't win. Detroit's outplayed Nashville in both games at home and has dropped both. This series hinges on luck.<br />
<br />
Luck will be the factor that swings this series, the better team be damned. It's going to be about broken sticks and deflections, not positional play and shot quantity. And as frustrating as it can be for control freaks, or the hockey equivalent of control freaks in puck possession teams, it's something that can't be controlled.<br />
<br />
This is the most beautiful part about the rest of the series, the dim light that has yet to be snuffed out. Luck can turn. Luck can switch sides. Right about now, it's Detroit's turn to get luck on their side. All series long Nashville has had the deflections, seeing-eye shots, and bounces go in their favor. There's nothing that says these breaks won't fall to Detroit over the next three games.<br />
<br />
Losing to a team that we've had to learn to hate on the fly isn't the way for this series to end. This isn't the fate that this team deserves, a team that Mike Babcock admitted he thought might miss the postseason prior to the start of the year and then watched develop into a team that he said had the best chance at a Cup since the 2009 squad.<br />
<br />
Perhaps most importantly, this isn't the way that one of the top three Red Wings in franchise history deserves to go out. Nick Lidstrom hasn't said he's retiring, but the possibility is there. If we're completely honest with ourselves, Game 4 was one of his worst in recent memory. I still think he's one of the top ten players in the NHL and will defend him past reasonable expectations (there's a strong likelihood the guy's still hurt, and one bad game is an abberation), but there's a very real chance that he may have played his last game at Joe Louis Arena. There <i>isn't</i> always next year. For some, the time <i>has</i> to be now.<br />
<br />
Don't give up on this team. Don't quit. Think about what happens if Hudler doesn't hit the post tonight, or if the Mule's goal in Game 3 isn't 0.01 seconds too late. If these breaks start to go the other way, we've got a series. The road team has won 17 of 25 games this postseason. Two out three on the road isn't a death sentence. It's time to go to Nashville, keep putting buckets of shots on Rinne, and hope that the inches and seconds that make a difference start to align themselves in our favor.<br />
<br />
<i style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Like it? Hate it? Let me know on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TOGBlog1" style="color: #888888; text-decoration: none;">@TOGBlog1</a> or by email at theoctopigarden@gmail.com</i>
<br />
<br />Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-5643021309230709272012-04-15T21:27:00.000-04:002012-04-15T21:27:40.670-04:00GBGA Round 1 Game 3: Battling the Preds, the clock, the officials, and everything in betweenAnother game, another opportunity for the Red Wings to prove that they're clearly better than Nashville, despite what the series record may tell you.<br />
<br />
On display this afternoon was a third period that was wholly dictated by Detroit. It was one of the most dominating periods of hockey this team has played all year, and yet one of the four shots that Jimmy Howard faced that period ended up behind him, once again shifting the balance of power to the charmed Predators.<br />
<br />
I'm going to pull a George here and quote the man himself from his <a href="http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/tmr/comments/red_wings-predators_game_3_quick_take_making_a_game_of_it_doesnt_count/">postgame article</a> on The Malik Report:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; text-align: left;">Yes, the Wings rallied against themselves and the Predators, but this loss is immensely dispiriting because, well…The Wings are making Pekka Rinne into Dwayne Roloson, and for whatever reason, the Predators seem to have all the “puck luck” at both ends of the ice thanks to a forecheck that’s generating turnovers in Detroit’s zone, body position in their own end and a litany of blocked empty-net shots—Detroit had not only 43 shots on Rinne (who wasn’t forced back into his net nearly enough after Drew Miller ran him over) today, but they also fired 15 wide and 19 into Nashville Predators players for a total of 34 extra pucks not hitting Rinne or the back of the net, and 77 total attempted shots, perhaps most eloquently illustrating how incredibly </span><i style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; text-align: left;">inefficiently</i><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; text-align: left;"> the Red Wings have played throughout this series.</span>
</blockquote>
I don't feel the need to write anything more. Everything else I've thought about discussing is already covered in George's article, so I highly recommend heading over there and checking it out.<br />
<br />
Really, how many times can a team have not only their own play, but seemingly the referees and most damingly "puck luck" on their side? One of those three has to change for Detroit to pull this series out.<br />
<br />
Let's take a closer look at what transpired (with pictures, naturally).<br />
<br />
<b>1st Period</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Detroit 0 Nashville 1; 2:48- PPG Weber from Kostitsyn & Radulov</b><br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg31-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg31-1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Legwand has the puck along the boards and passes to Radulov in the middle of the faceoff circle. Defensively, Kronwall has gone to the corner and Cleary had come down as both are trying to cut off Legwand's passing lanes. This leaves Stuart the lone defender down low to pick up Radulov in front of the net. Datsyuk is near the hash marks but without a stick, and therefore without much of a chance to have an impact of any Predators who try to set up on the back door.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg31-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="181" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg31-2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Radulov dishes to Kostitsyn directly in front of Howard, who is undefended because Stuart was forced to step up on him. Datsyuk has slid down to try and do what he can, but he ends up only being able to shove Kostitsyn. The shot from Kostitsyn hits Howard, and the rebound trickles out to his right. Meanwhile, Kostitsyn decides that Datsyuk's shove means it open season on pushing in front of the net, and he throws Stuart into Howard. No one has picked up Weber on the back door, and he's able to convert the rebound opportunity past a down and out Howard.</div>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>2nd Period</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Detroit 0 Nashville 2; 3:50- Klein from Erat</b><br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg32-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="188" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg32-1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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The Wings miss the net in the offensive zone and Nashville picks the puck up along the boards. They start a quick two man breakout through the neutral zone with Erat controlling the puck and Klein trailing. Near center ice Klein starts to surpass Erat, who passes to his right. This shouldn't be a difficult zone entry for the Wings to handle, as they have numbers. All Stuart needs to do is turn at the right time to stay with Klein.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg32-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="171" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg32-2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Stuart doesn't turn at the right time and ends up lightly hooking Klein as he blows past him.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg32-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg32-3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Klein is in all alone and lifts the puck over Howard's glove to take the lead. Hard to criticize Jimmy when he got hung out to dry, but this doesn't seem like a shot that he had no chance on.</div>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Detroit 1 Nashville 2; 15:03- Datsyuk (1) unassisted</b><br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg33-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="196" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg33-1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Nashville wins the draw in their own end and goes d-to-d behind the net. Seems pretty harmless at the time, right? Wrong. There's one player in the league that can make the play he's about to make, and he wears 13 for the Winged Wheelers.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg33-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg33-2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Datsyuk lifts Josi's stick and swiftly swipes the puck away. Meanwhile, Rinne has decided to wait for the puck to come around the boards and is staring down Dan Cleary.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg33-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg33-3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Pasha neatly tucks the puck around the post, and Rinne has one of the biggest "Oh Sh*t!" moments of all time as he realizes he just fell asleep on one of the top three players in the world behind his own net.</div>
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<b>3rd Period</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Detroit 1 Nashville 3; 16:30- Kostitsyn from Fisher & Klein</b><br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="191" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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In the midst of Detrot's offensive blitz, Kronwall carries the puck in and blasts a shot from just inside the blue line. Rinne stops it, and Kronall chases his own rebound to the faceoff circle.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="188" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Nashville wins the race to the loose puck and starts a break out the other way. Three Detroit players are now stuck behind the rush, leaving Nashville with a great chance at an odd-man opportunity as the pass finds Kostitsyn at center.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="183" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Filppula goes for the poke check here and misses, which spells doomsday for Detroit. Kostitsyn flies past him and now has 2-on-1 situation unfolding in front of him.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg34-4.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Kostitsyn delays, judging in a split second whether he has room to pass or will have to shoot. It looks like Stuart gets in the passing lane just enough to make Kostitsyn choose the later. He drags and snaps a shot over Howard's shoulder.</div>
<b><br /></b><br />
<b>Detroit 2 Nashville 3; 19:06- Zetterberg (2) from Datsyuk (2) & Kronwall (1)</b><br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg35-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg35-1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Detroit mounted a flurry of offensive activity in the third period, and nothing came from it until there was less than a minute left in the game. Kronwall dishes to Zetterberg along the boards, who carries towards the net.</div>
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg35-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshg35-2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Nashville collapses on net and takes away any option Zetterberg has to pass. This doesn't stop him from looking into the middle of the ice the whole time he skates towards the net, perfectly selling the pass that isn't coming. Z quickly shoots and surprises Rinne, beating him blocker side and putting the game momentarily within reach.</div>
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<b><br /></b>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3628017769741263210.post-43771031284692655362012-04-14T00:16:00.000-04:002012-04-14T00:16:14.151-04:00GBGA Round 1 Game 2: Evening Things in More Ways Than OneEvery team needs an identity. It provides an M.O., something to rally around when things get rough and something to draw confidence from during those difficult times. It seems that Detroit's penalty killing has quickly provided just that.<br />
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They say that a good powerplay is the ultimate enforcer. If this is true, then a good penalty kill is the ultimate demoralizer. This is what the Wings have become; demoralizing in their ability to take an opponent's perceived strength and turn it on its head, to take something that was supposed to be the key to the series and nullify it so completely that Nashville can't help but think about tweaks on their flight to Detroit.<br />
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The Wings head home having yet to surrender a powerplay goal in the playoffs, stifling the league's best powerplay during the regular season. While even strength defense wasn't always great in this game (and was just difficult to watch in the 3rd period) it was serviceable, and I'd bet that this is more of an aberration than a downward trend in even strength defensive play.<br />
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Todd Bertuzzi answered the bell in the 1st by engaging Shea Weber in more of a wrestling match than a fight, appropriate given the disgusting move Weber chose at the end of game 1. Detroit then answered the bell as a unit and won the ultimate battle for retribution by evening the series at 1 a piece as we head back to the friendly confines of the Joe.<br />
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<b>1st Period</b><br />
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<b>Nashville 0 Detroit 1; 8:25- White (1) from Holmstrom (1) & Miller (1)</b><br />
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Before the screencap, Tomas Holmstrom wins a race to the puck along the boards and chips it back to White. This is the perfect example of what the Wings did right all night long. They played with more jump than I've seen all season and won more races and corner battles than any other game in recent memory. White picks up the puck and realizes he has a ton of room to shoot. There are two Wings trying to do what Babcock made explicitly clear before the game; get to the front of the net if you want to score on Rinne. Though the two aren't exactly netfront, the traffic does enough to impair Rinne's ability to track the puck. White shots and Rinne doesn't see it pass him.</div>
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<b>Nashville 0 Detroit 2; 15:33- Emmerton (1) unassisted</b><b><br /></b><br />
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Emmerton wins the race to a loose puck at center ice and starts the 2 on 1 rush. Josi has his stick out to take away the cross ice pass. Emmerton has to read Josi and Rinne simultaneously to pick his move.</div>
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Josi dives, and Emmerton's decision is basically made for him. With no passing lane he has to shoot, and he picks a spot over Rinne's shoulder blocker side. Smart move by Emmerton to keep the puck away from Rinne's glove, which has to be the best in the league. Emmerton beats Rinne cleanly for his first career playoff goal.</div>
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<b>2nd Period</b><br />
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<b>Nashville 1 Detroit 2; 9:01- Kostitsyn from Radulov & Legwand</b><br />
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Detroit is able pin Nashville on the boards a few times, but never able to get a stick on the puck to clear. Nashville picks it up and carries up the wall. It looks like they might try and cycle the puck, so Cleary steps towards the blue line. This leaves Kostitsyn alone in the slot, and Radulov immediately passes when he sees this.</div>
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Kostitsyn wastes no time in shooting. Howard never sees the shot thanks to two Nashville players and a Wings defender camping out in front of the net. Howard, like Rinne on the first goal, learns that stopping the puck is nearly impossible when you can't see it. Duh.</div>
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<b>Nashville 1 Detroit 3; 9:57- Franzen (1) from Stuart (1) & Datsyuk (1)</b><br />
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<a href="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshgame2g4s1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="188" src="http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/xx261/theoctopigarden/Wings%20screen%20caps/detnshgame2g4s1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Bertuzzi sets up Datsyuk nicely for an offensive zone entry. Datsyuk carries in and sees Stuart trailing with no defenders close to him. He passes it back to Stuie and heads for the net. </div>
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Weber decides to let Franzen skate towards the net, instead choosing to pick up Stuart as he moves lower in the offensive one. This is costly though, as Weber can't change direction quickly enough to step up on Stuart.</div>
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Weber drops to a knee and then slides to try and take away Stuart's shot to no avail. Stuart puts one on net that glances off of Franzen, changing directions and beating Rinne. This is another perfect example of what Babcock has been talking about for the past two days. Get traffic in front of the net and make Rinne's job hard, as it should be.</div>
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<b>3rd Period</b><br />
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<b>Nashville 2 Detroit 3; 15:16- Weber from Gaustad & Spaling</b><br />
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Detroit loses all of the battles for the loose puck on this play. Gaustad carries behind the net, which draws Bertuzzi back with him. Quincey was pinned in the corner shoving Weber, and he has to turn to chase as Quincey got twisted and ended up closer to the boards. </div>
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Bertuzzi can't stop Gaustad, and neither can the unfortunately well-positioned White. Weber is open for a split second before Quincey can catch up, and it looks like Weber is in the right place at the right time. Gaustad's pass through traffic connects and Weber immediately backhands the puck over Howard.
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<b><br /></b>Adamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07263637591526022985noreply@blogger.com0