Thursday, June 14, 2012

Sign on the Dotted Line: A Brief Look at the Red Wings' Free Agent Targets

I wanted to create a resource where a relatively brief summary of each of Detroit's free agent targets was housed on one page. Hopefully this is helpful for those interested in a little more in-depth info about the talent pool available. I'll be updating this frequently leading up to July 1st, so check back for more.


Zach Parise: See my post here.

Alexander Semin: Most things I've heard have been less than favorable, but there's definitely something intriguing about him. If you're looking for something more qualitative, it's the chemistry he had playing with Pavel Datsyuk at Worlds. If you're looking for something more quantitative, it comes from Basically, a HARO+, HARD+, or HART+ rating above 1 means the player exceeded expectations, and a rating below 1 means they underperformed given their circumstances (ice time, linemates, and defensive ability of opposition). Semin's even strength HARO+ (offense) is 1.289, his HARD+ (defense) is 0.996, and his HART+ (total) is 1.143. According to, he had the third highest Corsi rating of Capitals forwards (5.21), which means he gets shots to the net more frequently than he allows them. This fits nicely with the Wings possession system. The biggest issue with him? His contract. He'll have to take at least a slight paycut from the $6.7 million he made last year.


Ryan Suter: The last part of my post needs to be updated, but the stats are all there and worth checking out.

Dennis Wideman: His even strength numbers aren't great (HARO+ 0.972, HARD+ 0.951, HART+ 0.961). Played over 150 minutes more than any other Washington d-man on the powerplay and had a good HARD+ (1.123). Logged 158 minutes of penalty kill time and had a better HARD+ (0.855) than teammates Karl Alzner (215 minutes, 0.623 HARD+) and John Carlson (200 minutes, 0.627 HARD+). Played in all situations, but was a secondary option on the penalty kill and played against easier competition (Relative Corsi Quality of Competition of -1.039). I'd take his 11 goals, 35 assists, and 46 points in a heartbeat if the price was right, regardless of whether Suter signs with Detroit. He's a right handed shot as well, which the Wings could use.

Jason Garrison: A big body (6'2", 218 lbs), he's a defensive defenseman that could fill the void left by Brad Stuart. Great even strength HARD+ (1.233) against strong competition (second highest Relative Corsi QoC of 1.015). Played second most PK minutes among Panthers defenders against the toughest competition (Relative Corsi QoC of 2.937). At 27 years old and with only 3 full season under his belt, he's just starting to come into his prime. Due a huge raise from the $700,000 he made last year. I'd love to see him wearing the Winged Wheel next season.

Matt Carle: He has good possession numbers, evidenced by positive on-ice Corsi at even strength, on the powerplay, and on the penalty kill. Achieved these against mediocre competition across those same situations. Didn't play a lot on special teams. At even strength, his numbers are mediocre (HARO+ 1.079, HARD+ 0.928, HART+ 1.004). Made $3.8 million this past season, scored 4 goals, and added 34 assists. I think that the Red Wings' money could be better spent elsewhere, and that signing Carle means that all of Detroit's negotiating with each of the above players fell through.

Coming soon: more forwards, goaltenders

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